349
FXUS64 KSHV 041214
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
614 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND KICKS OFF, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.
- A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WILL KEEP THINGS BORING UNTIL A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS BRING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST LATER NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PRE-FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDED CLOUD COVER, LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP A TAD IN OUR NORTH AND EASTERN
ZONES AND FOG CHANCES HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STILL A TOSS UP, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD WEST. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THE CLOUDS STAY AT BAY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL MIX OUT SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THE NAM CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THE
CLOUD COVER, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD REESTABLISH AT THIS POINT,
OFFICIALLY KICKING OFF OUR WARMING TREND AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE 70S OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
NEARING 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO AND GFS ARE MORE ALIGNED THAN YESTERDAY AND ARE
AGREEING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW WILL INTEGRATE BACK IN THE BROADER
TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THERE IS GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE MODELS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY LENGTHENING THE RAIN PERIOD
INTO THE WEEKEND. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE LOW FOR
THIS EVENT RIGHT NOW, WITH THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WPC
KEEPING D1-7 QPF BELOW 1 IN. BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS, THE
CONTINUED RAIN SHOULD HOPEFULLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
60S BY NEXT SATURDAY.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
FOR THE 04/12Z TAF PERIOD, LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY A RANGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AIRSPACE. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS BUT VSBY IMPACTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
LIMITED IN SCOPE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KTYR/KGGG/KLFK
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SLOW BUT STEADY
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
THESE CIGS EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT AND ALL SITES RETURNING TO
VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND
TO AN EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS TODAY AND AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 46 72 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 60 42 69 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 57 38 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 58 44 71 57 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 56 40 68 54 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 64 47 71 60 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 63 45 71 58 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 66 45 71 59 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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