795
FXUS64 KSHV 050453
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1053 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND KICKS OFF ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING CLOSE TO NEAR-RECORD VALUES BY MIDWEEK.
- CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL RAIN RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STICKING AROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE, WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS AMONG SHORT-TERM MODELS. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAVEN'T BEEN RULED OUT AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF
THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER CLEARING AS WE GET LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD DENSE FOG BECOME WIDESPREAD, AN ADVISORY
MAY BE ISSUED. BUT EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION ON
THE ROADS EVEN WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT, AS FOG CAN
COME UPON YOU VERY QUICKLY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD MIX OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT, THE RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED AND ANOTHER WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
OR LOW 70S ON MONDAY, BUT NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG-ANTICIPATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE BAJA REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING,SHIFTING THE FLOW ABOVE THE
ARK-LA-TX FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SETUP IS
LIKELY TO BRING RAIN IN TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEGINNING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER WHICH, THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE STEADY RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOPEFULLY BRING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. NBM IS PLACING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD IN SOME
TIME.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR JUST ABOUT AIRSPACE WIDE THIS EVENING AS TXK IS THE ONLY
TERMINAL BATTLING A MIX OF MVFR GIVEN SOME LOWER BKN/OVC CIGS BELOW
2KFT. ELSEWHERE BKN/OVC CIGS ABOVE 15,000 FT CONTINUE TO FILL IN
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN STAYING PUT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT IS HIGH, BUT IT IS THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBY THAT RAISES SOME QUESTIONS. HI-RES
VSBY GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 05/12Z FOR TERMINALS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
THREE STATES MARKER. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT,
ELECTED TO ADVERTISE REDUCED VSBY'S THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND RECOVERY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TERMINAL SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLIES AROUND 10KT.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 45 71 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 42 69 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 68 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 45 70 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 40 67 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 47 70 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 44 71 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 44 71 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...53
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