940
FXUS64 KSHV 050552
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND KICKS OFF ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING CLOSE TO NEAR-RECORD VALUES BY MIDWEEK.
- CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL RAIN RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STICKING AROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE, WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS AMONG SHORT-TERM MODELS. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAVEN'T BEEN RULED OUT AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF
THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER CLEARING AS WE GET LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD DENSE FOG BECOME WIDESPREAD, AN ADVISORY
MAY BE ISSUED. BUT EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION ON
THE ROADS EVEN WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT, AS FOG CAN
COME UPON YOU VERY QUICKLY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD MIX OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT, THE RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED AND ANOTHER WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
OR LOW 70S ON MONDAY, BUT NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG-ANTICIPATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE BAJA REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING,SHIFTING THE FLOW ABOVE THE
ARK-LA-TX FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SETUP IS
LIKELY TO BRING RAIN IN TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEGINNING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER WHICH, THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE STEADY RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOPEFULLY BRING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. NBM IS PLACING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD IN SOME
TIME.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO BE THE THEME THIS EVENING AS SCT/BKN
COVERAGE FILLS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME,
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SLOWLY SHOWING SIGNS OF VSBY
REDUCTION, AN INDICATION THAT SOME OF THE LOW LYING SPOTS OF THE
AIRSPACE MAY SEE AN EARLY INITIATION OF THE BR/FG REFERENCED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IMPACTS
REMAINS LIMITED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT HI-RES HAS BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE EXTENT OF THE FG/BR, ELECTED TO STILL LEAVE THE
PREVIOUS MESSAGING WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES TO VSBY REDUCTION
EXTENT. WHAT DOES MATERIALIZE BR/FG WISE WILL CARRY THROUGH THE
MID MORNING AHEAD OF DISSIPATING AS SURFACE SOUTHERLIES INCREASE
AND AVERAGE AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON WILL
AGAIN BE A MIX OF SOME FEW/SCT LOW CU WITH HIGH CLOUD ALOFT,
HOLDING VFR FOR MOST.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 45 70 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 43 68 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 68 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 44 70 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 40 68 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 47 70 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 46 70 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 46 70 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...53
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