638
FXUS64 KSHV 051229
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
629 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND KICKS OFF ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING CLOSE TO NEAR-RECORD VALUES BY MIDWEEK.
- CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL RAIN RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STICKING AROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE, WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS AMONG SHORT-TERM MODELS. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAVEN'T BEEN RULED OUT AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF
THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER CLEARING AS WE GET LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD DENSE FOG BECOME WIDESPREAD, AN ADVISORY
MAY BE ISSUED. BUT EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION ON
THE ROADS EVEN WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT, AS FOG CAN
COME UPON YOU VERY QUICKLY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD MIX OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT, THE RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED AND ANOTHER WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
OR LOW 70S ON MONDAY, BUT NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG-ANTICIPATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE BAJA REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING,SHIFTING THE FLOW ABOVE THE
ARK-LA-TX FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SETUP IS
LIKELY TO BRING RAIN IN TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEGINNING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER WHICH, THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE STEADY RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOPEFULLY BRING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. NBM IS PLACING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD IN SOME
TIME.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOR THE 05/12Z TAF PERIOD, EXPANDING LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES
TO BRING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO OUR EAST TX TERMINALS AND KSHV
ALREADY THIS MORNING. FURTHER EXPANSION NORTH AND EAST MAY RESULT
IN KTXK SEEING THESE SAME CONDITIONS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
WHILE THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE FARTHER EAST AT KELD AND KMLU. SLOW
BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A RETURN TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR EAST TX TERMINALS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE RETURNING TO
MOST SITES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE, BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WINDS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 59 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 68 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 68 50 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 70 57 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 68 53 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 70 60 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 70 58 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 70 59 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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