862
FXUS64 KSHV 051734
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1134 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND KICKS OFF ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING CLOSE TO NEAR-RECORD VALUES BY MIDWEEK.
- CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL RAIN RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STICKING AROUND UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE, WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS AMONG SHORT-TERM MODELS. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG HAVEN'T BEEN RULED OUT AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF
THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER CLEARING AS WE GET LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD DENSE FOG BECOME WIDESPREAD, AN ADVISORY
MAY BE ISSUED. BUT EARLY MORNING TRAVELERS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION ON
THE ROADS EVEN WITHOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT, AS FOG CAN
COME UPON YOU VERY QUICKLY.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD MIX OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY. AT THAT POINT, THE RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED AND ANOTHER WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
OR LOW 70S ON MONDAY, BUT NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG-ANTICIPATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE BAJA REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING,SHIFTING THE FLOW ABOVE THE
ARK-LA-TX FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SETUP IS
LIKELY TO BRING RAIN IN TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEGINNING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER WHICH, THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE STEADY RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOPEFULLY BRING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. NBM IS PLACING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WE'VE HAD IN SOME
TIME.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOR THE 05/18Z TAFS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH VSBYS INCREASING AND CIGS CLIMBING. FROM CLEAR SKIES
IN THE EAST TO ERODING OVC DECKS IN THE WEST. THE LOWEST CIGS
REMAIN AT KTXK AND KSHV, WHICH LOOK TO IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR BY
MIDAFTERNOON. CIGS LOOK TO DECREASE AGAIN WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY IS FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO FAVOR FOG, BUT THE
DECIDING FACTOR WILL BE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING ELEVATED AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. THUS
HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DENSE FOG, PREVAILING LOW CIGS AND LIGHT
MIST POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 59 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 55 76 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 50 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 57 76 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 53 74 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 60 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 59 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...26
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