486
FXUS64 KSHV 051836
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1236 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- DRY AIR AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS WHERE FIRE STARTS AND SPREADS COULD OCCUR QUICKLY.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES MAY BE ACHIEVED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
- THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PORTRAYS A SOMEWHAT LOW-
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL US/GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE EASTERN US/MID ATLANTIC.
UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE THEN EXISTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC/US
WEST COAST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THE LATEST WPC ANALYSIS DEPICTS
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
AND DELMARVA COASTAL REGIONS, WITH INFLUENCE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US. IT ALSO
APPEARS LEE TROUGHING EXISTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
MORNING FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LENDING TO A
BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
IS EXPERIENCING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL BREAK SOME FOR THOSE IN THE CLOUDY SKIES
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AREA-
WIDE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SW.
MONDAY NIGHT/TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WESTERN
US TROUGH DIGS AND HELPS DEFINE AN AREA OF CLOSE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS, THIS WILL HELP "KICK" SOME LEADING
SHORTER-WAVE PERTURBATIONS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF BOTH
THE LOWER LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES NEAR THE PLAINS WILL HELP
PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING MORNING HOURS
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE NEAR THE 50TH
PERCENTILE GIVEN EXPECTED PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY AND
STUBBORN LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING, WHICH IS LIKELY TO
TEMPER RISING TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST INITIALLY. IF WAA AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER-PERFORMS AGAINST LOW CLOUD COVER,
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. NOT
ONLY WILL NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES BE A FORECAST CONCERN, FIRE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR E TX. A
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND PERHAPS PUSH JUST EAST OF OUR
FAR WESTERN E TX COUNTIES, RESULTING IN QUITE A NOTICEABLE
GRADIENT IN MIN RH. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TYLER, TX TO MOUNT PLEASANT, TX TO BROKEN BOW, OK COULD SEE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIP TO NEAR 25%. THESE CONDITIONS, COMBINED
WITH S/SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH, AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE THIS AREA
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE STARTS AND SPREADS, ALTHOUGH THE RISK
WILL EXIST AREA-WIDE.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE S/SE
TOWARDS NORTHERN BAJA, HELPING INDUCE DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE VIA SW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS. A
DRYLINE MAY STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
WITH AN APPROACHING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HOVERING NEAR NORTHERN
ZONES. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD HIGHS IN PLACES, ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL
POSITIONING. COULD ALSO STILL BE FACING SOME RH AND FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES ACROSS E TX.
ON THURSDAY, THE CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA WILL OPEN, TAKE ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT AND EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. THESE
FEATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE E/NE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY DAY'S END. WHILE THE ARKLATEX WILL
REMAIN IN THE HEART OF THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE, INSTABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS CHALLENGED,
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS DISPLACED TO THE N/NE SEEMS TO RENDER THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOW, DESPITE DECENT SHEAR PROFILES. ALL THAT SAID, SOME
STRONG STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP. FRIDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND EASTERN ZONES ARE CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC'S DAY 5 OUTLOOK. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AND FORECAST INSTABILITY
APPEARS GREATER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG). WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN
PLACE AND ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, THERE COULD BE A WINDOW OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS CURRENTLY LOW. HIGH PW
VALUES, FOR JANUARY, OF UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S, CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
CK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOR THE 05/18Z TAFS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH VSBYS INCREASING AND CIGS CLIMBING. FROM CLEAR SKIES
IN THE EAST TO ERODING OVC DECKS IN THE WEST. THE LOWEST CIGS
REMAIN AT KTXK AND KSHV, WHICH LOOK TO IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR BY
MIDAFTERNOON. CIGS LOOK TO DECREASE AGAIN WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY IS FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO FAVOR FOG, BUT THE
DECIDING FACTOR WILL BE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING ELEVATED AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. THUS
HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DENSE FOG, PREVAILING LOW CIGS AND LIGHT
MIST POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 59 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 55 76 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 50 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 57 76 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 53 74 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 60 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 59 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...19
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