847
FXUS64 KSHV 060544
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- DRY AIR AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS WHERE FIRE STARTS AND SPREADS COULD OCCUR QUICKLY.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES MAY BE ACHIEVED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
- THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
RECENT ASOS OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WARM
FRONT SET UP IN EAST TEXAS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. ADDING THE WARM AIRMASS TO A SEASON OF
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS
OF NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST CAPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO THE SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
RADIATIONAL HEATING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THESE VALUES MAY CHANGE IF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE STRONG ENOUGH.
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ADDED CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A DRYLINE MOVING INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE DRY LINE IS ABLE TO
PROPAGATE THAT FAR, RH VALUES BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD BE IN THE
REALM OF 20-30% RANGE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE 5-10 MPH, WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
SPREAD ANY FIRES THAT START. MONITOR LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR
OUTDOOR BURNING RESTRICTIONS AND SAFETY INFORMATION.
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND,
AS A RESULT, SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE
DEEPEST POINT OF THE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD SHIFT THE OUR FLOW ALOFT FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE ARK-LA-
TX. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY PLAY A CRITICAL
ROLE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN LATER DAYS. PERTURBATIONS OFF OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO KICK OFF SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FIRST ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS OF NOW, SPC HAS NO D4 OUTLOOK DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. AN ADDITIONAL LIMITING FACTOR TO ANY SEVERE
ACTIVITY COULD BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ANY ONGOING
MORNING SHOWERS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OFF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO
THE REGION EVEN AFTER THURSDAY. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
D5. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE APPARENT BETTER INSTABILITY SETUP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT'S EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR THE WEEKEND.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING
AS THE ANTICIPATED LOW BKN/OVC CIGS ARE FEW HRS DELAYED WHEN
COMPARED TO THE AFTERNOON GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THE 00Z PKG.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUD ARRIVAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND HOLDING TIGHT THROUGH THE AM. NT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THE LOW CIGS IS CONFINED TO THE SE
AIRSPACE ADVANCING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE REGION WHERE MLU
SHOULD SEE ARRIVAL JUST AFTER 06Z. ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR LFK AS
LOW CIGS ARE CLOSING IN NOW, IT MAY BE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. FG/BR
PROBS REMAIN SLIM CITING SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE SUBTLE VSBY REDUCTION. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN BR/FG IMPACTS WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AIRSPACE, INCLUDING LFK. BY THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON, SCT/BKN COVERAGE SUB 5KFT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SOME MID
CLOUD ABOVE 10,000 FT. AFTER SUNSET, A GENERAL THEME OF FEW/SCT
HIGH CLOUD SHOULD DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN
AIRSPACE, BR/FG MAY MATERIALIZE.
RK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 59 78 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 55 77 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 50 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 56 75 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 53 74 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 60 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 59 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...53
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