355
FXUS64 KSHV 061159
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- DRY AIR AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS WHERE FIRE STARTS AND SPREADS COULD OCCUR QUICKLY.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES MAY BE ACHIEVED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
- THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
RECENT ASOS OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED WARM
FRONT SET UP IN EAST TEXAS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. ADDING THE WARM AIRMASS TO A SEASON OF
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS
OF NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST CAPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S DUE TO THE SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
RADIATIONAL HEATING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THESE VALUES MAY CHANGE IF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE STRONG ENOUGH.
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AN ADDED CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A DRYLINE MOVING INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE DRY LINE IS ABLE TO
PROPAGATE THAT FAR, RH VALUES BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD BE IN THE
REALM OF 20-30% RANGE DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE 5-10 MPH, WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
SPREAD ANY FIRES THAT START. MONITOR LOCAL GUIDANCE FOR
OUTDOOR BURNING RESTRICTIONS AND SAFETY INFORMATION.
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND,
AS A RESULT, SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE
DEEPEST POINT OF THE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD SHIFT THE OUR FLOW ALOFT FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE ARK-LA-
TX. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY PLAY A CRITICAL
ROLE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN LATER DAYS. PERTURBATIONS OFF OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO KICK OFF SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FIRST ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS OF NOW, SPC HAS NO D4 OUTLOOK DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. AN ADDITIONAL LIMITING FACTOR TO ANY SEVERE
ACTIVITY COULD BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ANY ONGOING
MORNING SHOWERS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OFF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO
THE REGION EVEN AFTER THURSDAY. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES AS BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
D5. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE APPARENT BETTER INSTABILITY SETUP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT'S EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR THE WEEKEND.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOR THE 06/12Z TAF PERIOD, WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
OF OUR AIRSPACE THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN
ITS WAKE. THESE LOW CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, A CU FIELD WILL
LIKELY PERSIST BETWEEN 3-4KFT AS BREEZY W/SW WINDS CONTINUE JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR NW AIRSPACE AND THEN EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS, DECIDED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT THIS MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS AS
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT SOME TERMINALS BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER 07/06Z. OTHERWISE, DID TREND TOWARD LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BY 07/00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 50 76 62 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 76 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 72 40 69 53 / 0 0 0 30
TXK 75 46 72 60 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 74 44 71 55 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 77 48 79 64 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 78 47 77 61 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 78 52 78 62 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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