616
FXUS64 KSHV 070136
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
736 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST TX, SOUTHEAST OK, AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST AR. BE
SURE TO ADHERE TO LOCAL BURN BAN POLICIES AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION IF BURNING IN A LOCATION WITHOUT RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES MAY BE ACHIEVED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
- CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE WEEK AREA-WIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA AND SW
TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. NEAR THE
SURFACE, THE MOST RECENT WPC ANALYSIS DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
TO ITS SW CONTAINING ANOTHER SFC WAVE/LOW IN THE OK/AR VICINITY,
WITH A DRYLINE THEN EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS LOW ACROSS NE AND
CENTRAL TX.
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF CA COAST UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION, DESPITE
LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LARGELY ERODING/MIXING OUT. WHILE THIS MAY
AFFECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, SOME LOCATIONS STILL
REMAIN AT RISK OF BREAKING RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY AS
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S WARM FRONT CREATE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
JANUARY. ALONG WITH POSSIBLE RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES, FIRE
WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS E TX WHERE THE
APPROACH OF A DRYLINE COULD YIELD MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20-25%.
EVEN IF THESE RHS ARE NOT REACHED, THIS AREA WILL REMAIN MOST
PRONE TO FIRE STARTS AND SPREADS, ALTHOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WELL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH ORIGINAL SFC WAVE
OVER OK/AR WILL SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF IN THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S
IN ITS WAKE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS E
TX AND N LA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IT WILL DO SO SOUTH OF I-20. THIS WILL PLACE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WITHIN THE CURRENT MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS WITH A
RISK FOR STRATUS/PATCHY FOG AND WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES, WHEREAS
AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN A DRIER
AIRMASS WITH CIRRUS/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING AND MIN TEMPS IN THE
40S.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. LEADING SPEED MAXES WITHIN THE H5 SW FLOW WILL BE
EJECTING NE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE BROADER TROUGH, INDUCING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BEGIN LIFTING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL AGAIN PLACE SOME LOCATIONS IN
JEOPARDY OF TYING OR BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. PART OF
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WHERE THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS INITIALLY AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES NORTH.
FOR THURSDAY, THE NORTHERN MEXICO LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY'S END.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES, WITH THIS LOW TAKING ON A SIMILAR TRACK TO ITS UPPER
LEVEL PARENT LOW THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE FOUR STATE
REGION BROADLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS RAISES THE QUESTION WITH REGARD TO SEVERE
WEATHER. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
(AS DOES OVERALL DYNAMICAL FORCING BEING DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTH), WITH MLCAPE AND SBCAPE APPEARING TO REMAIN AROUND 500J/KG
AT BEST, AND POSSIBLY CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SAID, SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
AND SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, AND THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 2000M2/S2, PER MODEL GUIDANCE, MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7C/KM, SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE SPC CURRENTLY
REFLECTS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CANNOT BE IGNORED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
AND A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF YET ANOTHER AREA OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE TIME OF DAY IS NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE
TO SEVERE WEATHER, AND MOST SBCAPE WILL LIKELY NO LONGER BE
PRESENT, ANY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, SUPPORTED BY MARGINAL MUCAPE,
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR SOME WIND AND HAIL.
FRIDAY CURRENTLY CARRIES THE HIGHER THREAT FOR RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING SE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS TIME, THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INFLUENCE. PVA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
IGNITE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND LIKELY ALSO
AHEAD WITHIN THE BROADER WARM SECTOR. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS APPEAR TO PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES WILL REACH AT LEAST 1000J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, AND THIS COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT SHEAR PROFILES AND LIFT
COULD LEND A DECENT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WHETHER THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT PROJECTED TIMING AND SPATIAL TRENDS.
WHILE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS SOME OF THE MORE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS
FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE, IT STILL REMAINS
A BIT EARLY TO SPECULATE SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
THE RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE PROJECTED TO BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH
60 DEGREES. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
CK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUD PASSES OVER FROM THE WEST.
ELD IS ALREADY FALLING IN THE VSBY CATEGORY CITING CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. THIS IS LIKELY GOING TO BE THE THEME ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AIRSPACE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF THE FG/BR PROBS
LOOKS TO HOLD FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF ETX, THOUGH LFK AND
EAST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO LA WILL LIKELY SEE FG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, THE HOT SPOT TERMINALS WILL
BE LFK, ELD, AND MLU WITH VICINITY SMALLER AIRFIELDS ALSO SEEING
VSBY IMPACTS. T/TD SEPARATION AT SHV SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO VSBY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHAT DOES
MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH MUCH OF THE
AIRSPACE CARRYING A MIX OF SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AREAS WHERE DENSE FG DEVELOPS (IFR/LIFR)
MAY TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER WITH LOW LEVEL CU THROUGH THE DAY.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK AS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 75 62 77 / 0 0 10 50
MLU 52 75 59 77 / 0 0 0 40
DEQ 39 70 52 72 / 0 0 20 70
TXK 46 72 58 74 / 0 0 10 60
ELD 45 71 54 72 / 0 0 10 50
TYR 47 78 64 76 / 0 0 10 30
GGG 45 76 61 77 / 0 0 10 40
LFK 50 78 62 77 / 0 0 0 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...53
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