817
FXUS64 KSHV 070456
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1056 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE WEEK AREA-WIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM EL DORADO TO LUFKIN
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ELSEWHERE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
A CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE, COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, SLIGHTLY
SHY OF RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 30S BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, AN ISOLATED WILDFIRE THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE SPREAD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
AREAWIDE. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING FROM UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD GENERATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS.
COLD FRONT TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, COMBINED WITH A DEEP-LAYER FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. COULD SEE NEAR
FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EACH DAY. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUD PASSES OVER FROM THE WEST.
ELD IS ALREADY FALLING IN THE VSBY CATEGORY CITING CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. THIS IS LIKELY GOING TO BE THE THEME ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AIRSPACE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENT OF THE FG/BR PROBS
LOOKS TO HOLD FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF ETX, THOUGH LFK AND
EAST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO LA WILL LIKELY SEE FG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, THE HOT SPOT TERMINALS WILL
BE LFK, ELD, AND MLU WITH VICINITY SMALLER AIRFIELDS ALSO SEEING
VSBY IMPACTS. T/TD SEPARATION AT SHV SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO VSBY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHAT DOES
MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH MUCH OF THE
AIRSPACE CARRYING A MIX OF SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AREAS WHERE DENSE FG DEVELOPS (IFR/LIFR)
MAY TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER WITH LOW LEVEL CU THROUGH THE DAY.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK AS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 76 62 77 / 0 0 0 50
MLU 52 75 59 77 / 0 0 0 30
DEQ 39 70 52 72 / 0 0 20 70
TXK 46 73 59 75 / 0 0 10 70
ELD 45 72 54 73 / 0 0 10 50
TYR 48 78 64 77 / 0 0 10 30
GGG 46 77 61 77 / 0 0 10 50
LFK 50 78 63 77 / 0 0 0 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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