607
FXUS64 KSHV 070557
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE WEEK AREA-WIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM EL DORADO TO LUFKIN
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ELSEWHERE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
A CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE, COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, SLIGHTLY
SHY OF RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 30S BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, AN ISOLATED WILDFIRE THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE SPREAD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
AREAWIDE. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING FROM UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD GENERATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS.
COLD FRONT TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, COMBINED WITH A DEEP-LAYER FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. COULD SEE NEAR
FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EACH DAY. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
IFR AND LIFR CIGS ARE QUICKLY MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN THIRDS OF THE AIRSPACE AS VSBYS ARE QUICKLY FALLING
DUE TO BR/FG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW TERMINALS LIKE SHV AND TXK ARE
IMPACTED, BUT HI-RES SUPPORT IN THE LAST 6 HRS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME FORM OF LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TWO TERMINALS. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE FG, IT MAY
BE SOME TIME BEFORE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AIRSPACE SEES TOTAL
RECOVERY. BY 08/00Z, LOW CU WITH A SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUD PRESENTATION
WILL BE THE MAIN THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF THE
AIRSPACE AS VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT AREAWIDE, THOUGH
ONE OR TWO MAY STILL BE IN MVFR DEPENDING HOW LONG RECOVERY
TAKES. BY THE END OF THE PKG, LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE WINDS TRENDING S/SE BETWEEN
5-10KT.
RK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK AS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 76 62 77 / 0 0 0 50
MLU 52 75 59 77 / 0 0 0 30
DEQ 39 70 52 72 / 0 0 20 70
TXK 46 73 59 75 / 0 0 10 70
ELD 45 72 54 73 / 0 0 10 50
TYR 48 78 64 77 / 0 0 10 30
GGG 46 77 61 77 / 0 0 10 50
LFK 50 78 63 77 / 0 0 0 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ073.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ152-153-
165>167.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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