264
FXUS64 KSHV 071721
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE WEEK AREA-WIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM EL DORADO TO LUFKIN
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ELSEWHERE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOG IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
A CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE, COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, SLIGHTLY
SHY OF RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 30S BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, AN ISOLATED WILDFIRE THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE SPREAD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
AREAWIDE. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
RESULTING FROM UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD GENERATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS.
COLD FRONT TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, COMBINED WITH A DEEP-LAYER FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONT. COULD SEE NEAR
FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EACH DAY. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS, SKIES ARE LARGELY REBOUNDING TO VFR ACROSS
AREA AIRSPACE THIS LATE MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLFK, WHERE
LOW VSBY AND CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF INCOMING RAINFALL. GUIDANCE HINTS AT PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH, WITH IFR VIS/CIG
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KELD, KMLU AND KLFK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR DAYBREAK, WITH IMPACTS SPREADING
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY AND DUE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 12 KTS, BECOMING BREEZIER TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST
TEXAS AIRSPACE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS WEEK AS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 64 77 66 / 0 0 40 30
MLU 75 59 77 67 / 0 0 30 50
DEQ 72 53 73 52 / 0 10 80 30
TXK 75 59 74 61 / 0 0 70 40
ELD 75 55 73 61 / 0 0 40 60
TYR 79 65 77 60 / 0 0 40 10
GGG 78 63 77 62 / 0 0 50 20
LFK 78 64 76 64 / 0 0 40 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26
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