159
FXUS64 KSHV 081109
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
509 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS.
- BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE.
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH RETURN TO TYPICAL JANUARY TEMPERATURES (AND NEEDING
JACKETS) THIS WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN AREAS OF LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AREAWIDE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO AS
LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES PREVAIL AROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASE.
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THUS, A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
SURFACE FRONT, COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-30
CORRIDOR INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL,
STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TORNADO COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT NECESSARY TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION EXITS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING, A SECOND DISTURBANCE
WILL DIG EAST INTO OKLAHOMA. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON FRIDAY AND SERVE AS THE CATALYST FOR
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE ADVECTING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
ADDITIONALLY SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS,
SEVERE HAIL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE
FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH MIDWEEK. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
STARTING THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH A MIXTURE OF LOW VFR, MVFR AND A
FEW LOCATIONS WITH IFR CEILINGS ATTM. CEILINGS ARE AT VARIOUS
LEVELS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE
SFC. GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS AND IT WOULD
MAKE SENSE THAT THIS IS WHERE WE WOULD BE SEEING MVFR CEILINGS
WHILE LOWER CEILINGS WERE IN AND OUT OF THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF VCSH
ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS LIKELY BEGINNING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE THIS A LITTLE LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRIED TO SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN 2/3RDS WORTH OF TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS BECOMING LOW VFR BUT CEILINGS WILL TANK
QUICKLY AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR SSW WINDS
TODAY SUSTAINED NEAR 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE SHV/TXK/TYR AND GGG TERMINALS WITH
THOSE WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 66 75 48 / 40 30 70 60
MLU 77 67 76 53 / 30 40 80 80
DEQ 73 52 69 39 / 80 20 20 20
TXK 75 61 73 45 / 70 30 50 40
ELD 74 61 72 45 / 40 70 60 60
TYR 78 60 73 43 / 40 10 50 20
GGG 78 61 74 44 / 50 20 60 30
LFK 77 64 75 46 / 40 20 80 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-
124-125-136-137.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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