660
FXUS64 KSHV 081754
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1154 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MIXED
WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS, WE CONTINUE TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH MULTIPLE BURN BANS IN EFFECT.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WELL NORTH
OF OUR AREA IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THINKING THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY AFTER 00Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WITH IT
LINGERING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. THIS CONVECTION COULD BE MUCH
MORE ROBUST THAN TODAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, SEVERE HAIL, ISOLATED
TORNADOES, AND SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM TRAINING STORMS.
ONCE THIS CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT WE WILL GET SOME DECENT CAA THAT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE PICKING UP ON THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS HAVE PEAKED BETWEEN 30-40
MPH. THUS, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 4 PM FOR OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN EAST TEXAS. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
STARTING THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH A MIXTURE OF LOW VFR, MVFR AND A
FEW LOCATIONS WITH IFR CEILINGS ATTM. CEILINGS ARE AT VARIOUS
LEVELS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE
SFC. GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS AND IT WOULD
MAKE SENSE THAT THIS IS WHERE WE WOULD BE SEEING MVFR CEILINGS
WHILE LOWER CEILINGS WERE IN AND OUT OF THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF VCSH
ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS LIKELY BEGINNING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE THIS A LITTLE LONGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRIED TO SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN 2/3RDS WORTH OF TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS BECOMING LOW VFR BUT CEILINGS WILL TANK
QUICKLY AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR SSW WINDS
TODAY SUSTAINED NEAR 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE SHV/TXK/TYR AND GGG TERMINALS WITH
THOSE WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 66 75 48 / 40 30 70 60
MLU 77 67 76 53 / 30 40 80 80
DEQ 73 52 69 39 / 80 20 20 20
TXK 75 61 73 45 / 70 30 50 40
ELD 74 61 72 45 / 40 70 60 60
TYR 78 60 73 43 / 40 10 50 20
GGG 78 61 74 44 / 50 20 60 30
LFK 77 64 75 46 / 40 20 80 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-108>111-
124-125-136-137.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...13
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