118
FXUS64 KSHV 090526
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1126 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS SERVED AS A SOURCE FOR LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. IN THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR DAYBREAK.
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS TEXAS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON
FRIDAY. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THEREBY INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A
MOISTURE RICH LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME DEGREE OF SHEAR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND, TORNADO AND
HAIL THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS, AND NORTH LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AREAWIDE. THE COLDEST
NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT, COULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EASING UPWARD INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A REINFORCING COOL AIRMASS WILL
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
/05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MANY SITES HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS PREVAILING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL, CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO FALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
ARE ALSO DYING DOWN TO A MORE MANAGEABLE SPEED OUT OF THE S/SW
UNTIL THEY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY BEGINNING AROUND
09/09Z WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS
CONFIDENCE ON THIS COMPARED TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LOW CEILINGS
AREAWIDE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE LIFR CIGS
AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY THAT WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE OF A
FOCUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST THIS
PERIOD'S CONCLUSION. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 74 50 59 / 30 70 80 10
MLU 67 74 55 63 / 50 80 90 20
DEQ 46 68 40 54 / 10 30 40 0
TXK 57 70 47 56 / 30 50 60 0
ELD 60 71 47 57 / 50 60 90 10
TYR 56 71 44 56 / 10 60 40 0
GGG 59 73 44 57 / 10 70 60 0
LFK 64 74 47 59 / 10 70 80 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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