848
FXUS64 KSHV 090549
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1149 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS SERVED AS A SOURCE FOR LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. IN THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR DAYBREAK.
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS TEXAS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON
FRIDAY. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THEREBY INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A
MOISTURE RICH LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME DEGREE OF SHEAR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND, TORNADO AND
HAIL THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS, AND NORTH LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AREAWIDE. THE COLDEST
NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT, COULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EASING UPWARD INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A REINFORCING COOL AIRMASS WILL
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
/05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW
BUT WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN TO IFR/LIFR OVER THE NEXT 6 OR SO
HOURS. CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THIS NEW PACKAGE, BUT SOME SPOTTY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH SOME SITES NOT
LIFTING PAST IFR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN BEGINNING AROUND 09/19Z. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TO DROP AS NIGHT FALLS THURSDAY EVENING AND STAY LOW OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 5 KTS BUT SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO THE N AND THEN TO THE E THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHWEST
SITES BEING THE FIRST TO SEE THE SHIFT. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 73 51 58 / 30 60 80 10
MLU 66 75 56 63 / 40 70 90 20
DEQ 45 68 40 55 / 10 20 30 0
TXK 55 70 47 57 / 30 40 60 0
ELD 59 71 48 58 / 60 50 90 10
TYR 55 72 44 56 / 0 50 50 0
GGG 58 73 45 57 / 10 60 70 0
LFK 63 74 48 59 / 10 80 80 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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