876
FXUS64 KSHV 091732
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1132 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA.
- MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THROUGH THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ALREADY. THIS SET-UP, COUPLED WITH DECENT MLCAPE AND
SOME DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR, WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION,
SOME OF WHICH WE ARE STARTING TO SEE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EVENING.
SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM JACKSONVILLE TX, TO SHREVEPORT, LA TO JUST SOUTH OF EL
DORADO, AR. PRIMARY HAZARDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY ENHANCED
NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT
SEE SOME TRAINING STORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, MORE SEASONABLE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER-50S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
A COOLER, STABLE PATTERN. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A COLD FRONT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE) AND A PLETHORA OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TO START THE PERIOD,
WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME IN AND OUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TYR/GGG/TXK AND ELD TERMINALS BUT AT THE LFK/SHV AND MLU
TERMINALS, VSBY IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN BUT WE ARE DEALING WITH
IN AND OUT MVFR/VFR CEILINGS. THINK CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST AND INCREASE SOUTH OF THE I-20
TERMINAL IMPACTING THE LFK TERMINAL FIRST WITH A TREND FOR THIS
CONVECTION TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, IMPACTING OUR REMAINING TERMINALS. EVENTUALLY, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AIRSPACE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
CONVECTION ENDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
LOW IFR CEILINGS WITH POST FROPA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A WIND
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 51 58 39 / 60 80 10 0
MLU 75 56 63 39 / 70 90 20 0
DEQ 68 40 55 31 / 20 30 0 0
TXK 70 47 57 35 / 40 60 0 0
ELD 71 48 58 35 / 50 90 10 0
TYR 72 44 56 35 / 50 50 0 0
GGG 73 45 57 35 / 60 70 0 0
LFK 74 48 59 37 / 80 80 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...13
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