414
FXUS64 KSHV 092338
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA.
- MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THROUGH THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ALREADY. THIS SET-UP, COUPLED WITH DECENT MLCAPE AND
SOME DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR, WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION,
SOME OF WHICH WE ARE STARTING TO SEE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EVENING.
SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM JACKSONVILLE TX, TO SHREVEPORT, LA TO JUST SOUTH OF EL
DORADO, AR. PRIMARY HAZARDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY ENHANCED
NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT
SEE SOME TRAINING STORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, MORE SEASONABLE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER-50S ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
A COOLER, STABLE PATTERN. /33/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GREATLY REDUCED AS SOME HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH, SO SIMILAR SUDDEN CHANGES IN
FLYING CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN NW SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 60 39 57 / 90 0 0 0
MLU 58 63 39 54 / 90 20 0 0
DEQ 41 54 32 54 / 20 0 0 0
TXK 47 57 36 56 / 50 0 0 0
ELD 49 58 34 53 / 80 0 0 0
TYR 44 57 36 59 / 50 0 0 0
GGG 46 58 35 58 / 80 0 0 0
LFK 49 61 37 59 / 90 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...57
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