879
FXUS64 KSHV 100525
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
-TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
LOUISIANA.
-MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS REMAINS THE SOURCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
EVENING. LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA REMAIN IN A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 4 AM. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENCE OF WARM GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH FROM THE WEST COULD LEAD
TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
INCREASED MOISTURE COULD ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY COULD APPROACH 15 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS. WINDS TO DROP OFF TO 5 MPH OR LESS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING.
/05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE BACK EDGE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF THE LFK AND SHV TERMINALS TO
JUST EAST OF THE TXK TERMINAL. THIS CONVECTION WAS MAKING SLOW BUT
STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS
WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD GET THIS LINE
EAST OF THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEFORE THE NEXT 12Z TAF PACKAGE GOES
OUT. CEILINGS BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION QUICKLY BECOME VFR WITH
SOME 5-8KFT CEILINGS NOTED AT THE TXK AND TYR TERMINALS. MODEL CROSS
SECTION DO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR, POST CONVECTIVE CEILINGS
THROUGH 16Z OR SO TODAY ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS INTO THE TXK AND
SHV TERMINALS AS WELL. THOSE MVFR CEILINGS MAY STAY AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER AT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS. OVERALL, A TREND TOWARDS VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUSTAINED NEAR 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 61 39 58 / 90 0 0 0
MLU 58 63 39 54 / 100 20 0 0
DEQ 41 54 32 54 / 40 0 0 0
TXK 47 57 36 56 / 60 0 0 0
ELD 49 58 34 53 / 90 10 0 0
TYR 45 56 36 59 / 60 0 0 0
GGG 46 58 35 58 / 80 0 0 0
LFK 50 61 37 59 / 90 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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