794
FXUS64 KSHV 240559
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX STARTING THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ZONES, SPREADING SOUTH AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
BETWEEN I-20 AND I-30, WITH 3 INCHES OR MORE NORTH OF I-30,
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND 1 INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE-DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING, POSING THREATS TO EXPOSED PIPES, OUTDOOR PETS, AND
VULNERABLE PERSONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
CONFIDENCE IN PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS HAS PROMPTED THE
UPGRADING OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ARKLATEX TO AN ICE STORM
WARNING. ZONES TO THE NORTH REMAIN IN A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE
ENTIRE REGION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE ARKLATEX FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE NOTICEABLY FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS LIQUID PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
TRANSITION OVER TO WINTRY MIX. THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE IMPACTS WILL
BE IN THE ELEVATED REGIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS, POTENTIALLY BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING. AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES, FREEZING AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD, WITH IMPACTS
REACHING TEXARKANA AS FROZEN PRECIP PUSHES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
THE FURTHER PROGRESSION OF TONIGHT'S SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE FROZEN
CONDITIONS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SLOWING COMPARED TO RECENT RUNS,
MAKING INCREMENTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT, ARRIVING AT THE I-20
CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. TYLER, LONGVIEW,
SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER AND MONROE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FROZEN PRECIP
TO BE IN PROGRESS OR ABOUT TO BEGIN BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINTRY
CONDITIONS BEGIN, TRAVEL WILL QUICKLY BECOME TREACHEROUS, WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. THOSE LOCATED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SHOULD PREPARE TO HUNKER DOWN TONIGHT AND TO
STAY OFF THE ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, THE WINTRY MIX WILL ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AND
PARISHES, INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LUFKIN, NACOGDOCHES AND
NATCHITOCHES, SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE A TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP
BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW IF NOT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS ADVERTISED ABOVE, ONCE WINTRY PRECIP STARTS, TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED.
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO RESOLVE TWO DISTINCT "WAVES"
OF WINTER WEATHER, WITH SATURDAY'S INITIAL ADVANCE BEING THE FIRST
WAVE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY
HOURS SUNDAY. THE PROJECTED PRECIP RATES WITH THIS SECOND WAVE IN
PARTICULAR INDICATE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ENOUGH THAT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER MAY BE HEARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
CONCURRENT WITH THE ONGOING WINTRY PRECIP. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE EVENT TO AN END DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM THE WEST EARLY, EXITING THE
REGION ALTOGETHER BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION VALUES HAVE CHANGED SLIGHTLY, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND REMAINS CONSISTENT, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
I-20 AND I-30, WITH TOTALS OF 3+ INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-30.
STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ARKLATEX. THE HIGHEST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AND MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LOOK TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WHERE LENGTHY POWER OUTAGES CONCURRENT
WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
WHILE THE PRECIP CONCLUDES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, DANGEROUS COLD
WILL REMAIN A PARTICULAR HAZARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS, EVEN APPROACHING ZERO DEGREES NORTH BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT TO EXPOSED PIPES, OUTDOOR
PETS, AND VULNERABLE PERSONS. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
QUIET CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND- TO ABOVE-FREEZING
VALUES- FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
RETURNS BY THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, THE FIRST BIG RAIN AREA HAS CLEARED
OUR TERMINALS, WITH LIGHTER -FZRA/DZ LINGERING. THE HRRR PICKS UP
ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN ALONG I-30 OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TO ALONG I-20 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE, AIR TEMPS CONTINUE FALLING WITH THE NE WIND 10-20KT
BRINGING IN THE ARCTIC COLD. THE FREEZING LINE MEANDERS JUST NORTH
OF I-20 AT THIS TIME FROM KASL TO KBQP. BRIEF PATCHES OF PL/SN
WILL OCCUR, BUT GENERALLY WE ARE LOOKING FOR -FZRA TO DOMINATE
FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE. AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SATURATION BY
DAYBREAK, OUR VISIBILITY WILL SEE GREATER REDUCTIONS WITH DZ AND
BR/FG? DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS NEXT BIG PUSH WILL CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER HRRR AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER OFF
DURING SUNDAY. SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS NE5-15G30KT WITH MOIST
PACIFIC SW FLOW ABV 4KFT. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 26 30 23 30 / 70 100 100 70
MLU 27 32 23 30 / 30 100 100 90
DEQ 16 22 14 25 / 100 100 100 70
TXK 19 23 20 28 / 100 100 100 70
ELD 16 24 14 28 / 80 100 90 80
TYR 23 29 21 26 / 90 100 90 50
GGG 22 29 20 29 / 80 90 100 60
LFK 31 38 23 34 / 70 90 100 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ072-073.
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
LAZ017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ136>138-149>151.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ152-153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...24
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