490
FXUS64 KSHV 241217 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- TRANSITION TO WINTER PRECIPITATION IS UNDERWAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTHWARD AND COLLIDES WITH
THE WARM AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
- SNOW/SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN POWER
OUTAGES AND IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- FRIGID AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE
OF THE WINTER STORM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS, AND WIND CHILLS NEAR AND SUB ZERO BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
OUR HIGHLY ANTICIPATED WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY AS WHAT STARTED AS
RAIN IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR. ARKANSAS DOT CAMERAS NEAR AND
AROUND THE TEXARKANA AREA SHOW SLEET COVERED HIGHWAYS AS A RESULT
OF HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME,
REPORTS OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND CARS HAVE COME IN THROUGH
THE EVENING IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. THIS COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHWARD, AS TEMPERATURES AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS ON RADAR, WHICH HAVE BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN TO THIS
POINT, TO TRANSITION TO A FREEZING RAIN MIX, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SLEET IN HIGHER REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. A 12Z WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH
IS SCHEDULED FOR LATER THIS MORNING. THIS LAUNCH WILL SAMPLE THE
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. EXPECTATION IS FOR A ROBUST WARM
NOSE TO STILL BE PRESENT ALOFT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
FORECAST OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATION AND
PROLONGED IMPACTS, AN ICE STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST FOR PREDOMINATELY ICE DURING THE WEEKEND EVENT.
RADAR IMAGERY WILL LIKELY BE SPLIT BY THREE DIFFERENT P-TYPES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO WINTER MIX ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, IMPACTS TO THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THIS FIRST INITIAL WAVE,
WITH CHANGES EXPECTED AS THE SECONDARY WAVE OF FORCING AND PVA
MAX MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY
THIS POINT, SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AREAWIDE AS WE ENTER
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIP RATES, WHICH CAN RESULT IN QUICK ICE
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON LOCATION. AT THE SAME TIME, CAMS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ROBUST CONVECTION WITHIN THIS WAVE OF PRECIP,
WITH THE ODDS OF THUNDER WITHIN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP ON THE
HIGHER SIDE. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIP
WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE CHANCE THAT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.
WHILE THE DEPARTURE OF THE PRECIP WILL BE A WELCOMED SITE, IN THE
WAKE OF THE WINTER STORM, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. MORNING
LOWS WILL SIT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS, WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE THAW PROCESS TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN. WITH THIS EXPECTED, THIS WOULD CAP OFF ALMOST
80-90 HOURS BELOW FREEZING FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THAT BEING SAID,
WHILE HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, ALLOWING FOR SOME BACK AND FORTH
PERIODS OF REFREEZE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NOW IS THE TIME TO STAY INDOORS AND AVOID ALL TRAVEL AS ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE FROM HERE AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AND PRECIP COVERAGE EXPANDS.
RK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
AREAS OF FZRA, SOME OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH IP, WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE,
IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER E TX AND SW AR, AND WHILE HIGH BASED
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS AT RSN/MLU WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER/BECOME LOW MVFR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A BAND OF FZRA MOVES IN. LFK WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON, AND THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED RA HERE WITH A TRANSITION TO FZRA EXPECTED AROUND/AFTER
21Z. ONCE THESE CIGS LOWER, IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS THE AREAS OF FZRA (WITH
REDUCED VSBYS) CONTINUE AS WELL, AND WHILE A LULL IN THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FZRA MIXED WITH
IP WILL DEVELOP/OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ICING. NE
WINDS 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SRN AR/N LA. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 30 23 30 12 / 100 100 70 20
MLU 32 23 30 11 / 100 100 90 20
DEQ 22 14 25 2 / 100 100 70 10
TXK 23 20 28 8 / 100 100 70 20
ELD 24 14 28 7 / 100 90 80 20
TYR 29 21 26 10 / 100 90 50 20
GGG 29 20 29 9 / 90 100 60 20
LFK 38 23 34 13 / 90 100 60 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ072-073.
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ136>138-149>151.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
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