910
FXUS64 KSHV 250616
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
TOMORROW AS FURTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE ARKLATEX,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE REGION.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN STORM TOTAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF I-20, AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE-DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING, POSING THREATS TO EXPOSED PIPES, OUTDOOR PETS, AND
VULNERABLE PERSONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE FIRST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SLEET,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF LOUISIANA AT THIS LUNCHTIME
HOUR. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH MOST SITES EXPECTED TO SEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING, OVERSPREADING THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THE EXACT NATURE OF THE WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL DEPEND
ON WHAT TEMPERATURE PROFILES DO IN THE INTERIM PERIOD, AS THE DEPTH
AND INTENSITY OF THE "WARM NOSE" WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
WHILE THE PREDOMINANT WINTRY PRECIP TYPE TODAY SO FAR HAS BEEN
SLEET, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS NEXT ROUND TONIGHT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION, THUS WILL BE MAINTAINING THE
EXISTING ICE STORM WARNING AND WINTER STORM WARNING, BOTH THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. STORM TOTALS STILL PROJECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE ICE STORM WARNING, AS WELL
AS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET MIX ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
POWER OUTAGES AS ICE BUILDS UP ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FOR THE
DURATION OF WINTRY PRECIP STARTS, AND WHILE ROADS REMAIN FROZEN
THEREAFTER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE
EVENT TO AN END DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM THE
WEST EARLY, EXITING THE REGION ALTOGETHER BY SUNDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE PRECIP WILL CONCLUDE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, DANGEROUS
COLD WILL REMAIN A PARTICULAR HAZARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS, EVEN APPROACHING ZERO DEGREES NORTH BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT TO EXPOSED PIPES, OUTDOOR
PETS, AND VULNERABLE PERSONS.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND- TO ABOVE-FREEZING VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE RETURNS BY THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIP MAY IMPACT THE ARKLATEX BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD, BUT THE
DETAILS OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE DAYS AHEAD AS WE CONTINUE
DEALING WITH THE IMPACTS OF THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
FOR THE 25/06Z TAF PERIOD, EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH FZRA AND FZRAPL
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STRONGER POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET PELLETS.
A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
BY OR AROUND 25/15Z WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 TERMINALS THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING EVEN AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE N/NE BETWEEN
6-12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 30 12 31 12 / 70 0 0 0
MLU 30 14 31 9 / 100 0 0 0
DEQ 25 2 31 1 / 60 10 0 0
TXK 28 8 31 10 / 70 0 0 0
ELD 28 8 31 9 / 90 0 0 0
TYR 26 11 31 10 / 30 0 0 0
GGG 29 10 32 9 / 40 0 0 0
LFK 32 14 35 11 / 50 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ072-073.
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ136>138-
149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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