421
FXUS64 KSHV 250632
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1232 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY AS FURTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE ARKLATEX,
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE REGION.
- WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES FALL EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO DAILY LIFE, INCLUDING DANGEROUS AND NEAR
IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, AND
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK AS DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING ABOVE FREEZING WILL
LIMIT THAWING OPPORTUNITIES UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
ROUND 2 OF OUR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR MAXIMIZING ASCENT AND ROBUST OVERRUNNING OF GULF AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WORKS INTO
WEST TEXAS. WINTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS A
RESULT, SLEET/SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, INSTANCES
OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE REPORTS OF THUNDER
HAVE ALREADY COME WITH EARLY BANDS OF HEAVY SLEET THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINTER PRECIP WILL EXIT THE FA AROUND NOON,
THOUGH WHAT REMAINS ON THE GROUND IN THE FORM OF ICE AND SLEET WON'T
BE GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS REALLY BROKEN INTO TWO PARTS WITH ACT
ONE BEING THE ICE AND SLEET WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ACT TWO IS THE ARRIVAL OF A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS TO THE REGION
WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AM, WHILE WIND CHILL VALUES FALL
BOTH NEAR AND SUB-ZERO. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, KEEPING ICE COVERED
ROADS DANGEROUS TO TRAVEL ON, EVEN THOUGH CREWS HAVE BEEN WORKING
TIRELESSLY TO TRY AND STAY AHEAD OF THE IMPACTS. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE 40'S. THIS, COMBINED WITH ONGOING TREATMENT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE THAW PROCESS TO BEGIN. THAT BEING SAID, WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, PERIODS
OF AFTERNOON THAW AND OVERNIGHT REFREEZE IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS UNTREATED REGULARLY IN THE DAYS TO COME.
EVEN WITH THE WINTER PRECIP IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR, BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH A MOSTLY QUIET WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL OF COURSE BE THE TEMPERATURES, AND THOUGH THEY MAY
NOT BE AS COLD AS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, IT IS STILL IMPORTANT TO CHECK
IN ON THOSE MOST VULNERABLE IN THESE SITUATIONS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS MANY BATTLE POWER OUTAGES IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
RK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
FOR THE 25/06Z TAF PERIOD, EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH FZRA AND FZRAPL
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STRONGER POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET PELLETS.
A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN
BY OR AROUND 25/15Z WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 TERMINALS THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING EVEN AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE N/NE BETWEEN
6-12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 30 12 31 12 / 70 0 0 0
MLU 30 14 31 9 / 100 0 0 0
DEQ 25 2 31 1 / 60 10 0 0
TXK 28 8 31 10 / 70 0 0 0
ELD 28 8 31 9 / 90 0 0 0
TYR 26 11 31 10 / 30 0 0 0
GGG 29 10 32 9 / 40 0 0 0
LFK 32 14 35 11 / 50 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ072-073.
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ136>138-
149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...19
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