036
FXUS64 KSHV 252026
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
226 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE TREACHEROUS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO DAILY LIFE, INCLUDING DANGEROUS AND NEAR
IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK AS DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIMIT
THAWING OPPORTUNITIES UNTIL MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
NOW THAT THIS WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX, THE NEXT MAJOR THREAT TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE THE
DANGEROUS COLD, WHICH ALREADY HAS THE REGION FIRMLY WITHIN ITS
GRASP, AND WHICH WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT, REPEATING
ITSELF AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PLACES SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, WHILE SITES UP TO AND NORTH OF
I-30 WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOMEWHAT, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SUBZERO
WIND CHILL VALUES NORTH OF I-30 AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, TOMORROW'S AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB ONLY
INTO THE 30S, REMAINING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK NORTH AND JUST
REACHING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MELTING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SOLIDLY REFREEZING ALL THE RESULTING
MELTWATER. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S,
JUST A SMIDGE WARMER OR COLDER AT SOME SITES, BUT STILL ULTIMATELY
RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MIDDLE TEENS SOUTH.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AT LEAST SEE THE ENTIRE ARKLATEX RETURN ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON, UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SPECIFICALLY,
AND WILL MARK THE START OF A MORE MILD TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. LOWS WILL STILL BE
BELOW FREEZING, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL WORK TO CONTINUE
MELTING OUR ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.
IT'S BEEN A BIT SINCE I'VE HAD THE BANDWIDTH TO DISCUSS LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS IN THESE DISCUSSIONS, BUT A QUICK SUMMARY OF THE
WEEK AHEAD IS IN ORDER. THE DEEP TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WINTER
STORM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK,
LEAVING A BROAD AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING PSEUDO-ZONAL OVER
THE ARKLATEX, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A LARGE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE FRONT RANGE, AND IT IS THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRY TO RIDE INTO THE ARKLATEX LATE IN
THE WEEK, DROPPING TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHILE MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND ANY POTENTIAL WINTRY
PRECIP CHANCES, SO TAKE THIS OUTLOOK WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, AS THE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAYS AHEAD AS WE CONTINUE DEALING WITH THE
IMPACTS OF THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS, WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED TO THE EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHICH COULD AFFECT
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, SO A
MENTION OF PRECIP WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE TRACE AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE,
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
26/06Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ALL TAF SITES BECOMING VFR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NUTTALL
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 614 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 15 35 15 43 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 13 31 10 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 3 32 3 39 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 8 31 12 41 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 9 32 10 41 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 12 32 16 41 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 12 34 12 42 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 16 37 14 45 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR OKZ077.
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...09
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