078
FXUS64 KSHV 261136 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
536 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,
WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES NEAR AND JUST BELOW ZERO WILL BE
PRESENT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
- PROLONGED PERIODS OF BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ICY
AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS.
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP MELT ICE ACROSS THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DIP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS,
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS COVERED IN AN ICE PACK FROM
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WINTER MIX. GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING, AND FOR TUESDAY MORNING,
OUR EXTREME COLD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. THIS IS SET TO EXPIRE
NOON TUESDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF OUR WINTER STORM EXITED THE REGION
JUST BEFORE NOON SUNDAY, A FEW SNOW FLURRIES, ALONG WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT ALONG THE I-30
CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING, EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN CADDO
AND BOSSIER PARISH. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A KINK IN THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW AS AN AXIS OF 700MB FGEN WAS DYNAMICALLY ALIGNED WITH
THE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS FROM THE KSHV RADAR. CONFIRMATION THAT
FLAKES WERE HITTING THE GROUND CAME FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES
INCLUDING TXDOT AND ARDOT CAMERAS, ALONG WITH SURROUNDING
OBSERVATION SITES AND SOCIAL MEDIA IMAGES. WHILE A FEW LIGHT
FLAKES CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS OF THE MORNING
BEFORE SUNRISE, TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.
THAT BEING SAID, AND WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE ICE PACK ON THE
GROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
WILL DELAY ANY IMPACTFUL MELTING OF THE ICE PACK UNTIL
TEMPERATURES CAN REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING, ALONG WITH LIMITED
CLOUD COVERAGE.
HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING WILL START AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, EVEN THOUGH
WE WILL START IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS WILL BE A THEME
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP BACK BELOW. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF REFREEZE OF WHAT MELTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS UP AND DOWN PATTERN WILL HANG AROUND WITH US THROUGH THE
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT FULLY MODERATE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STICKS AROUND IN THE WAKE OF OUR WINTER
SYSTEM. WITHOUT QUESTION, THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PRESENT
AIRMASS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20'S AND 30'S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLAY, PRECIP CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW,
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ONLY HINTING AT THE RETURN OF POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
KICKS SOUTH FORM THE NORTHWEST. ONCE THIS PASSES, ANOTHER PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL.
RK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
LOW MVFR CIGS STILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS DEEP E TX
AND PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA S OF I-20, BUT THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT S OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE, LOW AC
CIGS NEAR 10KFT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD SE INTO THE REGION BY MID AND
LATE MORNING ALONG AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH, WITH
THESE CIGS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. AFTERWARDS, SKC IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NNW WINDS 6-10KTS WILL BECOME
LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 30 11 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 30 10 41 20 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 30 2 39 13 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 28 12 41 20 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 31 11 43 18 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 30 13 40 20 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 30 9 42 19 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 34 12 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
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