327
FXUS64 KSHV 281755
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- MORE FREEZING FOG A GOOD POSSIBILITY TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
- THURSDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT OUR REGION ONCE AGAIN OR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
FOG CONTINUES TO BE STUBBORN ACROSS PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS WHERE THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAD TO BE EXTENDED
ANOTHER HOUR. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BACK ABOVE
FREEZING AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND HOPEFULLY TODAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD MELTING OF THE WEEKEND ICE
ACCUMULATION.
WHILE WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL MELTING TODAY, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD GO CALM OR BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND RESIDUAL ICE
PACK ARE THE PERFECT INGREDIENTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN
BELOW FREEZING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FOUR STATE REGION, THAT MEANS THAT THIS FOG WILL BECOME FREEZING
FOG. THE WINDOW TO SEE THIS ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9-10AM THURSDAY (MAYBE A LITTLE LATER
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES). WILL CHOOSE NOT TO POST A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT ONE MAY VERY WELL BE NECESSARY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE KEY MESSAGE STATES ABOVE...WE SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY ONCE WE ARE DONE WITH THE FREEZING FOG ON THE HEELS OF
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 50
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTH. OUR REGION HAS NOT
EXPERIENCED TEMPERATURES THIS WARM SINCE JUST BEFORE OUR WINTER
STORM LATE LAST WEEK SO THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HELP
THE MELTING PROCESS. ENJOY THE ONE MILDER DAY WE WILL HAVE ON
THURSDAY BECAUSE MORE COLD AIR IS IN THE OFFERING FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOOKING ALOFT, A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS LOCKED UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS THE FLOOD GATES WILL REMAIN OPEN SO TO SPEAK FOR ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
AND IMPACT OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST WEAK
UPPER FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION BUT ATTM, THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS
TO BE TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. BEFORE LAST NIGHT,
THE NBM HAD BEEN HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BUT WE HAVE HAD TWO
DRY RUNS OF THE NBM SINCE. WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC PROGS SUPPORT
THIS DRIER TREND, THERE ARE STILL SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,
SPECIFICALLY THE EC THAT STILL WANT TO GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. INTRODUCED NON-WEATHER POPS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AND WE WILL SEE IF WE GET
ENOUGH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE NBM TO PICK BACK UP ON ANY PRECIP
TRENDS WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A VERY SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED LONGWAVE
TROUGH QUICKLY PIVOTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISS AND TENN
VALLEYS. WHILE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS TROUGH,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION BUT AGAIN, THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE FOR THIS TROUGH TO WORK WITH. THE MUCH MORE
NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATING OUR
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD HAZARD PRODUCTS
WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR A COMBINATION OF AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS AND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME FOR JUST AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES AS SUNDAY MORNING PREDAWN TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM HIGH SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS
ELSEWHERE.
WHILE WE APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OUR UPPER
FLOW DOES CHANGE TO MORE OF A ZONAL TO WSW ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND...ALBEIT BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY WILL BE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
FOR THE 28/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
29/09-15Z AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ICEPACK ON THE SURFACE ACROSS
WIDESPREAD PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE WILL CREATE ENOUGH CONDITIONS
FOR FZFG IN THIS TIMEFRAME. VFR VIS/CIGS WILL RETURN WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
16
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 27 58 34 47 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 25 52 34 42 / 0 0 10 10
DEQ 20 49 25 43 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 27 53 32 44 / 0 0 10 0
ELD 23 53 30 42 / 0 0 10 0
TYR 29 54 30 45 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 25 56 30 46 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 28 60 32 49 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...16
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