764
FXUS64 KSHV 291157 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- TODAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY UNTIL NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO OUR FOUR-STATE AREA TONIGHT.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT OUR ENTIRE AREA AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND CHILLY SATURDAY AND COLDER OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THIN CIRRUS ARRIVING WILL THICKEN AND PERHAPS KEEP FOG LESS DENSE,
BUT POTENTIALLY FAR MORE DANGEROUS AS TRAFFIC SEES LESS ICE PER
SAY. HOWEVER, THESE CLEARED ROAD SURFACES WILL BE FAR MORE
ACCEPTING TO BLACK ICE FORMATION ESPECIALLY BY DAYBREAK AND
THROUGH THE EARLY COMMUTE. GREATER CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR THOSE
DEPARTING EARLY FOR WORK. THE MOISTURE FROM MELT IS GREATER,
ADDING TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF FOG, BUT AGAIN THE CIRRUS
SHOULD KEEP IT FROM GETTING SUPER DENSE. OUR EVENING SOUNDING
CONTINUES A PWAT AROUND 0.10" WITH MUCH DRY AIR INTO THE MID
LEVELS. SO THINGS MAY START BRIEFLY WORSE, BUT WILL IMPROVE MORE
QUICKLY WITH SE WINDS WARMLY STIRRING TO S/SW BY LUNCH.
THANKFULLY THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND RETURN HOLDS UNTIL
HEATING COMMENCES.
THE CIRRUS APPEARS TO THIN AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD 50S MELTING ALL, BUT SHADY AREAS STILL PACKED IN SOME
CASES. I WONDER IF KIDS WILL HOPE FOR SLEET DAYS NOW INSTEAD OF
SNOW DAYS IN LIGHT OF OUR LINGERING ISSUES FOR MANY LOCALES. THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS TO NW LATE AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH FRIDAY'S 40S BECOMING 30S FOR HIGHS BY SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN TOO WITH ADDED WIND CHILL TO
START THE WEEKEND. AND THEN SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS FOR DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY CLEAR AND CALMER.
HIGHS WILL QUICKLY REBOOT 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR WEEKEND OF
SEASONAL REVELRY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HELP OUT AGAIN. AND WE ARE
STILL LOOKING FOR DAYS OF 50S TO RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH SW WINDS
AHEAD OVER OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. LOWS GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AS
THE RAINS APPROACH. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SW WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING UPPER LOW, BUT STILL GOOD FOR AN INCH OR
TWO OF RAINFALL THIS TIME FOR THE EVENT PER WPC DAYS 5-7. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE WETTEST AND ENDING EARLY THURSDAY. THEN, IT'S
BACK TO MORE LA NINA WINTER WITH DRY, BUT NOT AS WARM CONDITIONS NOW
WITH THE GROUND CHILLED. PRECIPITATION OF ANY SORT WILL HARD TO
COME BY AS WE CONSIDER THE CPC DAYS 6-10 INTO THEIR 8-14 GRAPHICS
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. SO EARLY OUTLOOKS FOR GROUND HOG DAY, OR CLAUDE
THE CRAWFISH IF YOU LIKE APPEAR TO BE SUNNY, SO SHADOW AND LA
NINA MAY TEAM FOR WARMER DAYS FOR MID TO LATE WINTER.
CLAWS CROSSED. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 20/12Z TAF
PERIOD. CIRRUS CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AREAWIDE,
ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION
BY/AFTER 00Z WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CU CIGS ALONG THE FRONT
THAT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ENE ACROSS E TX/SW AR/N LA THIS EVENING.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD SE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY, GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AR/NCNTRL LA. THESE CIGS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS 6-12KTS TODAY WILL BECOME NW 6-12KTS WITH
AND BEHIND THE FROPA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 57 35 46 22 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 53 35 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 50 25 44 12 / 0 10 0 10
TXK 54 32 45 18 / 0 10 0 10
ELD 53 30 41 15 / 0 10 0 10
TYR 54 30 45 20 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 56 30 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 61 32 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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