298
FXUS64 KSHV 010824
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
224 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- THE CORE OF THIS BIG CHILL AIR MASS HAS MADE IT DOWN I-49.
S/SW WINDS TODAY WILL INITIATE A NICE WARMUP IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- SEASONALLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN A WEAKER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR VALENTINE/MARDI GRAS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MORE PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY HAVE BEEN/BE A FEW FLURRIES OR A FLAKE OR
TWO NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS HAVE
SETTLED IN THE TEENS AND SUBLIMATION IN THE DRY AIR ALOFT MAY
PRECLUDE ANY DOWN ON THE SURFACE. AIR TEMPS WILL FALL UNTIL
SUNRISE WITH NEAR CALM WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING QUICKLY BY MID MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS LIGHT EARLY WILL BECOME SW FOR THE AFTERNOON AT 5-15 MPH. WE
WILL SEE DRY (HAND LOTION/CHAP STICK DAY AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON,
BUT AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER WITH A RANGE OF 40S. THE REMAINDER
OF THIS DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE EXITING STAGE RIGHT ACROSS THE
MS RIVER WITH LOWS WARMING EARLY TO MIDWEEK. THE S/SW WINDS
REBOOT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE 60S FOR HIGHS FOR MONDAY WITH MORE
HUMIDITY RETURNING.
THIS FRESH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED UP AND BRING MORE NEEDED
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING ALL
OF TUESDAY, ALONG WITH THE INTENSITY PERHAPS ISOLATING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN I-49. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ENDING EARLY EVENING WITH SHIFTING WINDS. OUR COLD FRONT
THAT FOLLOWS WILL BUMP HIGHS IN THE 60S BACK INTO THE NORMAL 50S.
LOWS WILL BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND WARMING BEGINS
AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
OUR FINAL FRONT THIS CALENDAR WEEK ARRIVES DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHILL. THE WARMER TREND WINS OUT UNTIL
ANOTHER BIG PACIFIC LOW ARRIVES WITH LOTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF OUR
VALENTINE SATURDAY AND THE ARKLATEX MARDI GRAS FESTIVITIES.
BEYOND THAT, OUR NEXT BIG RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE NEXT
WORK/SCHOOL WEEK WITH A RAINY PACIFIC UPPER LOW ARRIVING
DURING MIDWEEK. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A BROKEN MID LEVEL
ALTOCUMULUS DECK IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT, LOWERING CIGS
BUT REMAINING WITHIN VFR LEVELS. A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AIRSPACE, BUT NOT TO A DEGREE TO BE
IMPACTFUL. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO BE NEARLY CALM AREAWIDE BY
DAYBREAK, THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
PICKING UP TO SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL TUESDAY. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 34 67 51 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 45 28 61 45 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 45 23 61 41 / 0 0 0 20
TXK 48 31 65 49 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 46 27 64 45 / 10 0 0 10
TYR 51 35 66 53 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 51 32 67 50 / 0 0 0 20
LFK 52 33 66 52 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26
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