243
FXUS64 KSHV 012340
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THIS WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO THAW
OUT FROM LAST WEEK'S WINTER STORM.
- OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
TROUGH.
- A SLIGHT RETREAT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONCLUDE
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL WARMUP THIS MORNING AFTER A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING BUT JUST BARELY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT'S THAT
SOLAR RADIATION AND RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL AID THE
TEMPERATURE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD OFFSET TEMPS SOMEWHAT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF BUT DID SHAVE NBM TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AND THOSE WINDS
ALONG WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN LARGE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND MOVES TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WE WAKE UP
TUESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS RETURNING AS EARLY AS THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
HALF MONDAY NIGHT BUT A BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THUS POPS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THE TUE/TUE NIGHT
TIMEFRAME BUT RETURNING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE MORNING TUE THRU TUE NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUE NIGHT WITH A DRY
WEDNESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE DISTURBANCE. WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
WILL BE DRY ON WEDNESDAY, COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND
THAT WILL SERVE TO TRIM TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS ON WED
AND THU ACROSS MOST PLACES.
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF OUR LONGWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM, THAT
TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS DRY.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
FOR THE 02/00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA
AIRSPACE THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR SKC
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AT KLFK. A MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUD DECK
LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT, AT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
FORECAST. THEREFORE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 33 67 50 65 / 0 0 10 80
MLU 27 61 45 62 / 0 0 0 90
DEQ 23 61 41 58 / 0 0 20 40
TXK 32 65 49 62 / 0 0 20 70
ELD 26 63 45 60 / 0 0 10 80
TYR 35 66 53 65 / 0 0 20 60
GGG 32 66 50 65 / 0 0 20 80
LFK 32 65 52 66 / 0 0 10 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page