671
FXUS64 KSHV 021208
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES START THIS FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY AS WE
CONTINUE TO THAW OUT FROM LAST WEEK'S WINTER STORM.
- OUR NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NE TX ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, ENDING OVERNIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS RETURN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEN REBOOT
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND UPCOMING BUSY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
CLEAR SKIES FOR CLAUDE THE CRAWFISH TO SEE HIS SHADOW FOR US WITH
6 MORE WEEKS OF WINTER TECHNICALLY EITHER WAY, BUT OUR ACTUAL
WEEKS WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID MONTH, IN LOOKING AT THE
CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK. AVERAGE IS 60 DEGREES THIS TIME OF YEAR,
AND WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE THAT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN BACK TO
JUST BELOW FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RETURNING FOR VALENTINE'S DAY AND OUR MARDI GRAS FESTIVITIES
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SO WHEN WILL THE CLOUDS RETURN? NO SHADOW PERHAPS BEFORE SUNDOWN
TODAY AS OUR LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH SLIDING DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WE'LL SEE SHOWERS PRE DAWN ON TUESDAY THAT WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND TO SOME DEGREE INTENSITY, BUT KEEPING BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS WITH CONSIDERATION OF THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. THE WPC IS LOOKING FOR A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OR SO
ALONG I-30 AND THEN BUILDING HIGHER TOTALS DOWN I-49 TO NEAR AN
INCH IN A FEW LOCALES. OUR WINDS WILL BE SW TODAY AND S ON
TUESDAY, BUT SHIFTING TO NW LATE ON TUESDAY, ENDING THE RAIN AND
SPREADING BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS DURING MIDWEEK. THEN ANOTHER WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
PRECEDES THE BUSY WEEKEND. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. EXPECT FOR
SKC TO BE THE DOMINATE SKY CONDITION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF INCREASING BKN/OVC CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED 5-10KT TERMINAL WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15KT. HI-RES SUGGESTS THAT SHRA
INITIATION WILL BE SOMETIME AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 03/12Z.
THEREFORE, ANY MENTION OF SHRA/VCSH HAS BEEN DEFERRED TO THE NEXT
TAF PACKAGE.
RK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 FROM TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 51 64 39 / 0 20 90 20
MLU 61 44 62 37 / 0 0 90 40
DEQ 60 41 60 30 / 0 30 50 0
TXK 64 49 63 35 / 0 30 80 0
ELD 63 45 60 32 / 0 10 90 10
TYR 65 53 65 38 / 0 30 70 0
GGG 65 50 65 36 / 0 30 90 10
LFK 65 52 65 40 / 0 10 90 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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