282
FXUS64 KSHV 021806
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1206 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY, ENDING OVERNIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS RETURN IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND UPCOMING BUSY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT INCREASING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-TROUGH, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT, TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA
AND DEEP EAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ELEVATED DEW
POINT VALUES IN THE LOWER 60S, WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.
SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION
BY DAYBREAK.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LATE IN THE WORKWEEK, HOWEVER,
EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE REGION WITH WEEKEND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, BUT CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AND MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT MOST TAF
SITES AROUND 03/12Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
NUTTALL
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 FROM TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 51 65 38 / 0 30 90 10
MLU 61 45 62 37 / 0 0 90 40
DEQ 60 42 61 30 / 0 40 60 0
TXK 65 50 64 35 / 0 40 80 0
ELD 64 45 60 33 / 0 20 90 10
TYR 65 53 65 38 / 0 30 80 0
GGG 66 51 66 37 / 0 40 90 10
LFK 66 52 66 40 / 0 20 90 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...09
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