511
FXUS64 KSHV 030733
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
133 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- THE GROUND HOG & CLAUDE THE CRAWFISH SAW THEIR SHADOWS IMPLYING
6 MORE WEEKS OF WINTER. WHICH IS ACTUALLY TRUE EITHER WAY
TECHNICALLY WITH SPRING 45.4 DAYS AWAY.FRIDAY 3/20 AT 9:46A.M.
- OUR NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NE TX ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE & LIMITED INTENSITY ENDING OVERNIGHT.
- BELOW AVERAGE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS RETURN IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEN WARMER ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND UPCOMING BUSY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
FINALLY, A WARM PERIOD AND PLENTY OF TIME TO MELT THE ICE THAT
REMAINED SO WELL IN THE SHADED AREAS. AND THIS PROCESS CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT WITH WARMER MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. IN ADDITION, THE WIND
IS STIRRING AND WILL HELP IN THAT SAME REGARD NOT BEING SATURATED
UNTIL DAYBREAK, AND EVEN IF BY THEN. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH FOG PER
SAY. THE S/SW WINDS WILL BE BRISK ENOUGH AND WILL KEEP FOR JUST A
SHORT PERIOD OF DAYLIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT MID MORNING TO NOON ACROSS I-30 AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR OUR I-20 CORRIDOR FOR TYLER AND TEXARKANA SHORTLY AFTER LUNCH
AND LONGVIEW AND SHREVEPORT BY MID AFTERNOON AND LUFKIN AND MONROE
TO FOLLOW BY SUNSET.
THE RAIN CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTING IN WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, THEN HEAVIER ELEMENTS OF
NEEDED DOWNPOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM MAYBE A TENTH NORTH OF
I-30, TO A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ALONG I-20, BUT NEAR ONE INCH
AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN DEEP EAST TEXAS AND CENLA WHERE THE MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF AMERICA DEEPENS ALOFT THE MOST AS THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS PERSIST. SO IT FOLLOWS, THIS IS WHERE OUR HIGHER TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COMING NW WIND SHIFT. RAIN TAPERS TO
LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE EVENING DOWN OUR I-49 CORRIDOR.
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRESHLY COLD AND DRY NW
WINDS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO END UP JUST BELOW SEASONAL FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEN WE'LL REBOOT WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, DESPITE
A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE? MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW OF NE WINDS
EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL SHIFTING BACK TO SE BEFORE
EVEN NIGHTFALL.
THEN WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE 70S FOR HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BEFORE WE GET THERE, BEHIND TODAY'S RAIN AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE, A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH FRESH FROM CANADA WILL
BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE AND KNOCK OUR LOWS BACK
BELOW FREEZING FOR I-30 AND NORTH, WITH A COOLER THAN AVERAGE
RANGE OF 30S ELSEWHERE DURING MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT SOME 40S INCH
BACK IN OVER OUR TX COUNTIES BY FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CHILLY AIR MASS. THEN OUR LOWS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL RUN UP
THROUGH THE 40S TO LOW 50S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND PERHAPS OUR
NEXT WET PERIOD WHICH HAS EYES FOR THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, ON & OFF
THROUGH VALENTINE'S DAY AND PERHAPS OUR LOCAL MARDI GRAS WITH A
PACIFIC BOWLING BALL UPPER LOW ON THE HORIZON OVER THE SEA OF
CORTEZ. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS, HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD LOWERING TO
MVFR LEVELS BY 03/12Z AND IFR INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, SPREADING
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MORNING AND TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
PIVOTING TO WESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FOCUSED ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR THE ENTIRE ARKLATEX, AND YET STILL WITH NO WIDESPREAD
EXPECTATION OF REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 51 65 40 / 0 30 90 10
MLU 61 44 62 38 / 0 10 90 50
DEQ 60 42 62 31 / 0 60 70 0
TXK 65 50 64 36 / 0 50 80 0
ELD 64 45 62 34 / 0 30 90 10
TYR 65 53 67 38 / 0 30 70 0
GGG 66 51 67 37 / 0 40 80 0
LFK 68 53 67 41 / 0 30 90 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26
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