043
FXUS64 KSHV 031632
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1032 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST MON FEB 3 2026
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
- BELOW AVERAGE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS RETURN IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEN WARMER ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INCREASED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RESULTING FROM HIGHER DEWPOINT
VALUES AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH, WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
CEILINGS TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S, WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. BY LATE WEEK, MILD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWS IN THE 40S. NOT
MUCH VARIATION IN OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD AIRMASS EXCHANGES. OTHERWISE,
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR THIS MORNING AS SHRA IS QUICKLY FILLING IN
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. CONVECTION ASIDE, CIGS REMAIN THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE DROP TO MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS AS BKN/OVC SUB 2KFT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE THEME THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHRA WILL GROW
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TSRA
ACROSS THE I-20 TERMINALS AND SOUTH. AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH, THIS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE
CONVECTION EAST OF THE AIRSPACE WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AM.
RK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST MON FEB 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 40 56 34 / 80 20 0 0
MLU 63 38 52 31 / 90 60 0 0
DEQ 62 31 53 27 / 70 0 0 0
TXK 65 36 55 32 / 70 0 0 0
ELD 62 34 52 28 / 90 10 0 0
TYR 68 38 57 33 / 70 0 0 0
GGG 68 38 58 32 / 80 0 0 0
LFK 67 41 59 35 / 80 30 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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