156
FXUS64 KSHV 031745
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1145 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST MON FEB 3 2026
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
- BELOW AVERAGE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS RETURN IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEN WARMER ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INCREASED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RESULTING FROM HIGHER DEWPOINT
VALUES AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH, WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
CEILINGS TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S, WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. BY LATE WEEK, MILD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED, RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWS IN THE 40S. NOT
MUCH VARIATION IN OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD AIRMASS EXCHANGES. OTHERWISE,
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD, WITH SHRA SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR SOUTH AND
EASTERN ZONES. SHRA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL A LINE OF TSRA
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PUSHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.
SKY COVERAGE SHOULD LIFT, AND CLEAR FOR SOME, THIS EVENING AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. KELD AND KMLU LOOK TO HOLD ON TO LOWER CIGS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY BUT CLEARING SOON AFTER.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST MON FEB 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 40 56 34 59 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 38 52 31 54 / 60 0 0 0
DEQ 31 53 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 36 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 34 52 28 56 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 38 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 38 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 41 59 35 60 / 30 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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