951
FXUS64 KSHV 041215
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN THROUGH THE DAY HAVE COME TO AN
END AS A COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE AREA.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- DRASTIC INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS SLOWLY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY HAS
ALMOST CLEARED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END, WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR REGION TONIGHT,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE CAA AND NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AS WE WAKE UP WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 32 DEGREES ACROSS SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS AREAS OF DEEP EAST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RECOVERING TODAY, WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY
MORNING WILL EASILY BE OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AND THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY, THEY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DRASTIC CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. NOT SURE WHY OUR AREA LIKES TO GO FROM ONE EXTREME TO
THE NEXT SO QUICKLY BUT HERE WE ARE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH SOME MODELS PICKING UP MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE A
PRETTY TRANQUIL FORECAST. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR AND SKC FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL BE THE THEME FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AHEAD OF SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING THE CLOUD
COVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT IS PRESENT ON SATELLITE SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE COVERAGE IN THE LATEST TAFS THROUGH 00Z MAY BE A
COVERAGE CRITERIA HIGHER VERSUS REALITY. THAT BEING SAID, CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS DOES SUPPORT THE THINKING FOR AN INCREASE IN SUB
5KFT SCT/BKN COVERAGE AFTER 05/00Z AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY 10KT WINDS, WITH
GUSTS NEARING 15-20KT, ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 56 33 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 52 30 54 39 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 53 27 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 54 32 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 51 27 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 58 33 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 32 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 58 34 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...53
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