729
FXUS64 KSHV 060550
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1150 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, NEXT CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH
WILL SET UP ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT BEFORE "SPRING" ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN
TEXAS, WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO OUR REGION BY LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND TO BE HONEST, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME 80S SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT FOR SOME
AREAS. KEEP IN MIND, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP US COOLER ON
SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS LOOK TO FOLLOW SUIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MAIN THING TO TALK ABOUT FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWARD INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, REACHING WESTERN TEXAS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS FOR THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAN I DO RIGHT NOW BEFORE
REALLY COMMITTING TO IT, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING BETTER. WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS
IN AND THEN OUR EYES WILL TURN TO ANOTHER SYSTEM WORTH WATCHING
TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. AND WHILE IT IS WORTH WATCHING RIGHT NOW,
THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO TIMING AND LOCATION. /33/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FOR THE 06/06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
VERY HIGH CLOUDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE AREA AIRSPACE
THROUGHOUT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT,
TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON, AT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 44 79 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 42 75 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 36 77 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 43 79 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 39 76 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 43 79 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 42 79 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 42 77 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...26
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