419
FXUS64 KSHV 061828
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1228 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, NEXT CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH
WILL SET UP ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT BEFORE "SPRING" ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN
TEXAS, WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO OUR REGION BY LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND TO BE HONEST, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME 80S SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT FOR SOME
AREAS. KEEP IN MIND, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP US COOLER ON
SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
SUNDAY AND HIGHS LOOK TO FOLLOW SUIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MAIN THING TO TALK ABOUT FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWARD INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, REACHING WESTERN TEXAS BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN SOME BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS FOR THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAN I DO RIGHT NOW BEFORE
REALLY COMMITTING TO IT, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING BETTER. WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS
IN AND THEN OUR EYES WILL TURN TO ANOTHER SYSTEM WORTH WATCHING
TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. AND WHILE IT IS WORTH WATCHING RIGHT NOW,
THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO TIMING AND LOCATION. /33/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
FOR THE TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE WINDS CHANGING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY (SOME
NORTHWESTERLY) BY 07/06Z AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
AIRSPACE WITH WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 44 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 76 39 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 77 36 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 78 41 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 76 37 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 79 45 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 79 43 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 77 46 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...16
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