700
FXUS64 KSHV 070710
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
- A PASSING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
- THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT LATER ON IN THE WEEKEND, PUSHING TEMPERATURES MUCH
HIGHER ONCE AGAIN.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
AFTER UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND EVEN A FEW RECORD HIGHS
SET ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE BACK
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE REGION WILL
SEE A RANGE OF 60S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER,
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WON'T BE STICKING AROUND FOR VERY LONG
AS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH
LATER ON THIS WEEKEND SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. ALL IN ALL, IT LOOKS TO BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR ALL OF OUR
WEEKEND MARDI GRAS FESTIVITIES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON
TUESDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE FROM THE BAJA REGION
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE QUITE MEAGER AT BEST WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY MISSING OUT ON
THE RAIN ALTOGETHER GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE FRONTS TO HELP
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING. CONSEQUENTLY, DON'T EXPECT ANY CHANGE
IN AIR MASS EITHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAILING
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN SOME FORM WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR
OUR REGION. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH THE
STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW, NBM GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY TAPERING
BACK THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO
WILL WARRANT MORE FINE TUNING OF THE FORECAST AS GREATER CONSENSUS
COMES INTO FOCUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NW TO THE NNE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BE BRIEFLY A LITTLE GUSTY WHEN THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TONIGHT TO BE IN A RANGE
OF 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AT THE
SURFACE (MAINLY NE TO ENE) WITH SPEEDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW CLOUDS IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT RANGE IN EASTERN ZONES
IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT TOMORROW EVENING WITH HIGHER
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE, ALL
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS (> 20 KFT) STARTING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 43 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 60 37 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 60 36 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 63 41 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 59 36 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 69 47 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 68 44 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 70 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...50
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