261
FXUS64 KSHV 141751
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT, FURTHER INCREASING S/SE
FLOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
- A NEUTRAL TO POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW-END SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
- THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VERY FRONT-LOADED IN TERMS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS OCCURRING EARLY ON WITHIN THE FIRST
24 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING MUCH MORE BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL BEYOND
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY
AIR MASS IN PLACE ARE THE RESULT OF A WARM FRONT THAT HAS MANAGED
TO OVERTAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, MAINTAINING UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT WHILE DEW POINTS ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
CLOSER TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING AHEAD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING E/NE FROM THE DESERT SW OF SOUTHERN
AZ/NM NEAR THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THE RESULTING SW FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE, COMBINING THE PACIFIC FETCH WITH SURGING GULF MOISTURE.
AS A RESULT, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
MORNING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA OF MOST
CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR DUE TO INSTABILITY
LIMITATIONS FARTHER NORTH. EVEN THEN, MUCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHILE BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE QUITE STEEP. GIVEN THE LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE
FROM CLUSTERED THUNDERSTORMS OUR TO OUR WEST INTO MORE OF A LINEAR
COMPLEX/LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST
TX. THE QLCS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED AS IT SHIFTS EAST
INTO SW AR AND NW LA THIS EVENING, WHILE MAINTAINING AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT OWING
TO THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
IN ADDITION, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE INTENSE LINE OF
CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT, WITH
URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK. ON AVERAGE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
TO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. SEVERE
AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WANE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AS SOME RESIDUAL
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ALL THE CONVECTION EVENTUALLY EXITS
THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BRIEFLY LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
SURGE BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
IN SPITE OF THIS WEEKEND'S EXPECTED RAINFALL.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
LOW CIGS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN EASTERN TX. THESE SHOWERS WILL GROW IN EXTENT AND
INTENSITY AS THEY PROPAGATE EASTWARD. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
TERMINALS MAY BEGIN TO SEE VCSH IMMEDIATELY, BUT THE LINE OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ISN'T EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST 14/21Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, BUT DECREASES IN VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 59 68 50 71 / 100 20 0 0
MLU 60 70 50 69 / 100 70 0 0
DEQ 53 65 40 68 / 100 20 0 0
TXK 59 68 47 70 / 100 30 0 0
ELD 56 67 45 69 / 100 50 0 0
TYR 57 65 47 72 / 100 0 0 0
GGG 56 67 47 72 / 100 10 0 0
LFK 56 68 50 73 / 90 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57
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