832
FXUS64 KSHV 141852
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1252 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- A ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROCEED THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 (TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT).
- HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLASH FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS (40% CHANCE OF >
3+ INCHES IN 24 HOURS).
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
NEAR-TERM 14/16-18Z SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ONGOING
ATMOSPHERIC EVOLUTION AS MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AS IT DOES, MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES APACE WITH THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM ROUGHLY ALONG OR
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER ARE MORE SOMEWHAT MORE VOLUMINOUS ACROSS EAST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA, ALLOWING FOR SOME INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT
(STILL BELOW 2000 J/KG) IN AN OTHERWISE LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR STORM
SETUP. HIGH- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH QLCS IMPACTS MORE LIKELY AMONG THE CONVECTIVE
GROUP (MEANING QUICK-SPIN UP TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
PRIMARY CONCERNS). SECONDARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WITH FLASH
FLOODING FROM ANY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES (40% CHANCE OF > 3+
INCHES IN 24 HOURS) DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORM LINES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-30, HOWEVER, DRY ANTECEDENT SOILS AND THE PROGRESSION
OF THE QLCS SYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE THOSE AREAS FROM MORE SERIOUS
IMPACTS.
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ARRIVING LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL REINTRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION AS BROAD RIDGING DISPLACES MORE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
WEATHER ACTIVITY INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER
80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
LOW CIGS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN EASTERN TX. THESE SHOWERS WILL GROW IN EXTENT AND
INTENSITY AS THEY PROPAGATE EASTWARD. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
TERMINALS MAY BEGIN TO SEE VCSH IMMEDIATELY, BUT THE LINE OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ISN'T EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST 14/21Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, BUT DECREASES IN VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 59 69 48 72 / 100 20 0 0
MLU 60 70 47 69 / 90 60 0 0
DEQ 52 66 40 69 / 100 10 0 0
TXK 58 68 45 71 / 100 20 0 0
ELD 56 68 43 70 / 100 50 0 0
TYR 56 66 46 72 / 90 0 0 0
GGG 56 67 45 72 / 100 10 0 0
LFK 56 67 49 73 / 100 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57
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