593
FXUS64 KSHV 150559
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- A ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROCEED THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 (TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT).
- HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLASH FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS (40% CHANCE OF >
3+ INCHES IN 24 HOURS).
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
NEAR-TERM 14/16-18Z SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ONGOING
ATMOSPHERIC EVOLUTION AS MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AS IT DOES, MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES APACE WITH THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM ROUGHLY ALONG OR
NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER ARE MORE SOMEWHAT MORE VOLUMINOUS ACROSS EAST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA, ALLOWING FOR SOME INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT
(STILL BELOW 2000 J/KG) IN AN OTHERWISE LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR STORM
SETUP. HIGH- RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH QLCS IMPACTS MORE LIKELY AMONG THE CONVECTIVE
GROUP (MEANING QUICK-SPIN UP TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
PRIMARY CONCERNS). SECONDARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WITH FLASH
FLOODING FROM ANY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES (40% CHANCE OF > 3+
INCHES IN 24 HOURS) DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORM LINES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-30, HOWEVER, DRY ANTECEDENT SOILS AND THE PROGRESSION
OF THE QLCS SYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE THOSE AREAS FROM MORE SERIOUS
IMPACTS.
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ARRIVING LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL REINTRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION AS BROAD RIDGING DISPLACES MORE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
WEATHER ACTIVITY INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER
80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
FOR THE 15/06 TAF PERIOD...REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE PERIOD. LOW CIGS, WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES, EXCEPT KLFK. EVENTUALLY, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. BUT, THE LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE WE SEE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 67 48 72 / 100 10 0 0
MLU 60 69 48 69 / 100 70 0 0
DEQ 52 66 39 69 / 100 10 0 0
TXK 58 67 45 71 / 100 10 0 0
ELD 56 67 43 69 / 100 50 0 0
TYR 56 66 47 72 / 90 0 0 0
GGG 56 66 47 72 / 100 10 0 0
LFK 56 67 50 73 / 100 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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