004
FXUS64 KSHV 160700
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WITH MANY AREAS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BRIEFLY
STALLING BEFORE SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AS THE STRATUS DECK THAT HELD ON FOR MUCH OF YESTERDAY CONTINUES
TO SHIFT SOUTH OF I-20, AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 9AM
THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO
A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, EXPECT LOW STRATUS
TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE REGION AS WELL AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOWING STRATUS SHIFTING BACK WESTWARD FROM THE MS RIVER.
SO UNTIL THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCOUR CLOSER TO MIDDAY,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RISE INITIALLY BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING LATER IN THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING, LOOK FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES EVEN
WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS MORE SWLY, WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION BEFORE BRIEFLY STALLING OUT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPS TO USHER THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S AND 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND
40S.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FOR THE 16/06Z TAF PERIOD...WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL LOCATIONS, EXCEPT KLFK. HOWEVER, FG/BR
HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME LOCATIONS AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RETURN OF LOW CIGS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID-MORNING MONDAY, BUT SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY NEAR 5 MPH ON MONDAY.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 52 74 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 68 49 73 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 68 45 71 55 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 71 51 74 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 66 46 72 56 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 71 52 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 71 51 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 72 51 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20
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