928
FXUS64 KSHV 170250
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
850 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WITH MANY AREAS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES DURING MIDWEEK.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
BRIEFLY STALLING, THEN SHIFTING ACROSS I-20 WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN COOLER FOR SUN DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE THICK FOG FROM DAYBREAK IS STILL LINGERING A BIT FOR A FEW
LOCALES AND THERE IS STILL AN IMPRESSIVE STRATUS DECK EAST OF
I-49. TEMERATURES TODAY VARIED, BUT OVERALL WE STILL ON TRACK FOR
A NICE WARM UP THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WE WILL LIKELY BECOME FAIR OVERNIGHT WITH MORE FOG TO START
THE SCHOOL WEEK. THE WARMER 50S WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE FOG
DENSITY AND THEN 60S LATER IN THE WEEK WILLA N-S BAND OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS OVER E TX/ADJACENT SW AR IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT/SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AT THE TXK/GGG TERMINALS BY 20Z. WHILE MOSTLY SKC SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT LFK/TYR/SHV, A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA
OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER SCNTRL AND SE AR INTO MUCH OF
NCNTRL/NE LA, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE MLU/ELD TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL
LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z TUESDAY AND SPREAD N THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS E TX/N LA, BRIEFLY BECOMING IFR IN SOME LOCALES
AFTER 12Z. THESE CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT/SCATTER OUT BY THE END OF
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF N LA/SRN AR. SSE WINDS AROUND
5KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME S AFTER 00Z, INCREASING TO 6-10KTS
LATE OVER E TX. /15/ FEEL SPRING LIKE IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY VARIED WITH THE FOG DEPTH AND THE STILL LOW SUN ANGLE, BUT
LESS FOG WILL YEILD MORE 70S ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL EDGE INTO 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COOL FRONT PARKED ON I-30 FRIDAY,
LEANING BACKDOOR OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SECONDARY AIR MASS OF 1050+ MB SPREADS
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FRESH OUT OF CANADA WITH
ARCTIC CONTINENTAL ORIGIN THAT WILL BE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY, DRIVING OUT THE RAINFALL AND NORTHERLY WINDS COOLING OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO MID FEBRUARY NORMS OR BELOW WITH MORE
SUB FREEZING READINGS, AT LEAST INTO S AR FROM THIS DISTANCE EARLY
BY NEXT TUESDAY MORNING. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 844 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF PERIOD...CLEAR SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO MOST OF
OUR LOCATIONS EXCEPT, KMLU/KELD. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
CLEARING AT KMLU/KELD BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE BACK INTO THOSE LOCATIONS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
REMAINING TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME BR/FG
AT TIMES. THE LOW CIGS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, PROGS ARE
TRYING TO KEEP THESE CLOUDS IN AT KMLU/KELD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW CIGS
DURING THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD,
WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS SITES.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 72 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 49 72 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 44 69 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 71 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 70 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 74 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 51 74 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 74 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...20
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