472
FXUS64 KSHV 170710
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT
FOG COVERAGE, BUT PATCHY FOG STILL MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH MANY AREAS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, THEN BRIEFLY
STALL OUT BEFORE SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
BOTH CIRRUS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND LOW STRATUS SURGING NORTH
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS
A RESULT, THIS SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION TO JUST PATCHY
IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN FOG WAS RATHER DENSE
IN MOST AREAS. OUR NORTHERN ZONES ACROSS SE OK AND SW AR ARE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE PATCHY FOG BASED ON CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
AND LITTLE IF ANY WIND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AND KEEP THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY MIXED.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANY PATCHY FOG TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDS SKIES LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDED BY THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PROPEL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY
WILL FURTHER AID IN THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND THIS
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING OUT FOLLOWING LAST WEEKEND'S RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.
MOVING AHEAD TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION BEFORE BRIEFLY BECOMING
STATIONARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY AIDED BY AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. AS A RESULT, THE STALLED BOUNDARY
WILL GET REINFORCED SE AND GRADUALLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION ENDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FOR THE 17/06Z TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURN,
WITH HIGH CIGS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME
BR/FG AT TIMES. THE LOW CIGS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH CIGS
RETURNING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH THE LOW
CIGS DURING THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING
THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS
SITES.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 61 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 70 59 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 69 55 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 73 61 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 68 57 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 74 62 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 74 59 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 60 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20
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