889
FXUS64 KSHV 171731 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING SHOULD LIMIT
FOG COVERAGE, BUT PATCHY FOG STILL MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH MANY AREAS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, THEN BRIEFLY
STALL OUT BEFORE SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
BOTH CIRRUS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND LOW STRATUS SURGING NORTH
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS
A RESULT, THIS SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION TO JUST PATCHY
IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN FOG WAS RATHER DENSE
IN MOST AREAS. OUR NORTHERN ZONES ACROSS SE OK AND SW AR ARE MORE
LIKELY TO SEE PATCHY FOG BASED ON CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
AND LITTLE IF ANY WIND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AND KEEP THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY MIXED.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANY PATCHY FOG TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDS SKIES LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDED BY THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PROPEL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN THE CLOUDS
AND PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY
WILL FURTHER AID IN THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND THIS
MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING OUT FOLLOWING LAST WEEKEND'S RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.
MOVING AHEAD TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION BEFORE BRIEFLY BECOMING
STATIONARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY AIDED BY AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. AS A RESULT, THE STALLED BOUNDARY
WILL GET REINFORCED SE AND GRADUALLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION ENDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
TO DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
ASIDE FROM BRIEF HIGH-BASED MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS EXTENSIVE CU CIGS WILL
LINGER. THESE CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BENEATH EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CIGS THAT WILL PERSIST, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY/AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA
BEFORE SPREADING NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THESE CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER SOME/POTENTIALLY BECOME IFR AFTER 12Z
AS BNDRY LYR WINDS DECOUPLE, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY TO 10-12KTS THIS EVENING, AND AROUND 5-8KTS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 61 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 70 59 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 69 55 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 73 61 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 68 57 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 74 62 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 74 59 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 60 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...15
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