992
FXUS64 KSHV 171753
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COOL
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS MANY SIT IN THE LOW AND MID 60'S. EXPECTATION IS FOR THE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUN THROUGH ANY BREAKS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW
TEMPERATURES TREND THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLAY.
ULTIMATELY, THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ENTER
INTO THE 70'S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING DOMINATE,
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70'S SCATTERED ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAY A ROLE IN THE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE PROFILE WHILE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS IN PLAY. THE PROGRESSION OF MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES NORTH OF THE FA WILL SPIN-UP SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE SOUTHERLIES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.
WHILE AT FIRST, IT MAY APPEAR THAT AN ELONGATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
HAVE THE STEAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK, THIS LOOKS
TO LOSE THE FORWARD MOMENTUM AND STALL OUT ACROSS NE TEXAS AND SE
OKLAHOMA. THAT BEING SAID, A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MID-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL HELP SPIN-UP AN ADDITIONAL LOW EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THAT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AM, INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FRONT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FULLY CLEAR, AND WITH SMALLER
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW, RAIN CHANCES WON'T
COMPLETELY CLEAR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY, WITH A RAIN FREE AND COOL
FINISH FOR SUNDAY.
THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH INTO THE CONUS WILL HELP
INTRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50'S TO NEAR 60 DEG F. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND TO NEAR-NORMAL BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
RK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
ASIDE FROM BRIEF HIGH-BASED MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS EXTENSIVE CU CIGS WILL
LINGER. THESE CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BENEATH EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CIGS THAT WILL PERSIST, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY/AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA
BEFORE SPREADING NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THESE CIGS SHOULD ALSO LOWER SOME/POTENTIALLY BECOME IFR AFTER 12Z
AS BNDRY LYR WINDS DECOUPLE, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY TO 10-12KTS THIS EVENING, AND AROUND 5-8KTS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 78 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 59 78 61 80 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 55 75 55 76 / 0 0 10 10
TXK 61 77 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 57 74 58 78 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 62 79 63 81 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 59 79 61 80 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 60 79 63 81 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
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