304
FXUS64 KSHV 180554
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1154 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COOL
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS MANY SIT IN THE LOW AND MID 60'S. EXPECTATION IS FOR THE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUN THROUGH ANY BREAKS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW
TEMPERATURES TREND THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLAY.
ULTIMATELY, THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ENTER
INTO THE 70'S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING DOMINATE,
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70'S SCATTERED ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAY A ROLE IN THE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE PROFILE WHILE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS IN PLAY. THE PROGRESSION OF MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES NORTH OF THE FA WILL SPIN-UP SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE SOUTHERLIES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.
WHILE AT FIRST, IT MAY APPEAR THAT AN ELONGATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
HAVE THE STEAM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK, THIS LOOKS
TO LOSE THE FORWARD MOMENTUM AND STALL OUT ACROSS NE TEXAS AND SE
OKLAHOMA. THAT BEING SAID, A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MID-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL HELP SPIN-UP AN ADDITIONAL LOW EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THAT WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING POPS THROUGH FRIDAY AM, INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FRONT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FULLY CLEAR, AND WITH SMALLER
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW, RAIN CHANCES WON'T
COMPLETELY CLEAR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY, WITH A RAIN FREE AND COOL
FINISH FOR SUNDAY.
THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH INTO THE CONUS WILL HELP
INTRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50'S TO NEAR 60 DEG F. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND TO NEAR-NORMAL BY TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
RK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF PERIOD...LOW CIGS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS TERMINALS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVERNIGHT, PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID TO LATE WED MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME PROGS ARE KEEPING
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KMLU/KLFK. VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW STRATUS.
EVENTUALLY, LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 77 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 59 76 62 80 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 55 74 56 76 / 10 0 10 0
TXK 61 77 63 79 / 0 10 10 10
ELD 57 73 59 78 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 62 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 60 78 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 60 78 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...20
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