172
FXUS64 KSHV 180631
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
- RAINFALL RETURNS TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY, WITH AREAWIDE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- COOL DOWN IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S, WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT, WHILE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MILD, DROPPING ONLY INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK. UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW SITES EVEN TAKING
AIM AT THE 80 DEGREE MARK. GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING SOME CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY OVERCAST SKIES
REBUILDING BY DAWN THURSDAY MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, AS DEVELOPING TROUGHS TO OUR NORTH
STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THIS PATTERN. THIS SET UP WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AND SURE ENOUGH,
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE ADEQUATE FORCING TO KICK UP SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. THESE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETURNING IN FORCE FRIDAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
REGION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FINALLY GETS INTO
MOTION, WITH A TROUGH AT LAST SWEEPING OUT THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL. LATEST TIMING ESTIMATES KEEP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RAINY AREAWIDE BEFORE SHOWERS COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN
OVERHEAD, MAKING FOR A QUIET CONCLUSION TO THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM THE 70S TO 50S WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF PERIOD...LOW CIGS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS TERMINALS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVERNIGHT, PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID TO LATE WED MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME PROGS ARE KEEPING
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KMLU/KLFK. VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW STRATUS.
EVENTUALLY, LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 81 53 72 / 0 10 10 20
MLU 62 79 56 73 / 0 20 20 30
DEQ 56 77 41 66 / 10 0 0 10
TXK 63 80 48 69 / 0 10 0 20
ELD 59 77 47 68 / 0 10 10 20
TYR 64 81 51 72 / 0 10 0 10
GGG 62 81 50 73 / 0 10 0 20
LFK 64 79 58 76 / 0 20 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20
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