616
FXUS64 KSHV 181131
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
- RAINFALL RETURNS TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY, WITH AREAWIDE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- COOL DOWN IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S, WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT, WHILE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MILD, DROPPING ONLY INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK. UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW SITES EVEN TAKING
AIM AT THE 80 DEGREE MARK. GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING SOME CLEARING
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY OVERCAST SKIES
REBUILDING BY DAWN THURSDAY MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, AS DEVELOPING TROUGHS TO OUR NORTH
STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THIS PATTERN. THIS SET UP WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AND SURE ENOUGH,
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE ADEQUATE FORCING TO KICK UP SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. THESE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETURNING IN FORCE FRIDAY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
REGION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FINALLY GETS INTO
MOTION, WITH A TROUGH AT LAST SWEEPING OUT THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL. LATEST TIMING ESTIMATES KEEP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RAINY AREAWIDE BEFORE SHOWERS COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN
OVERHEAD, MAKING FOR A QUIET CONCLUSION TO THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM THE 70S TO 50S WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
FOR THE 18/12Z TAF UPDATE...SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING THANKS TO SOME LOWER
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER THIS
MORNING, WHICH HAS LIMITED OUR FOG POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
SEEN SOME LOWER VISIBILITY AT TIMES AROUND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AS
WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ONLY TO DO IT ALL OVER
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS BRINGING MORE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 64 81 53 / 0 0 10 10
MLU 75 62 79 56 / 0 0 20 20
DEQ 75 56 77 41 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 79 63 80 48 / 0 0 10 0
ELD 74 59 77 47 / 0 0 10 10
TYR 80 64 81 51 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 79 62 81 50 / 0 0 10 0
LFK 78 64 79 58 / 0 0 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page