152
FXUS64 KSHV 190107
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
707 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
- RAINFALL RETURNS TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY, WITH AREAWIDE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- COOL DOWN IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S, WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A CONTINUOUS TIDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS,
WITH MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES STAYING CLOUDY WHILE NORTHERN
ONES FILL IN AND OUT BEGINNING TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY,
SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY LATE IN THE MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
ON A LARGER SCALE, UPPER-LEVEL LOWS WILL WORK THEIR WAY AROUND EACH
OTHER. THIS SHOULD WORK TO OCCUPY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND KEEP THE ARK-
LA-TX IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WILL PRIME THE AREA
FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. D1-5 QPF REMAINS PESSIMISTIC
ON RAIN TOTALS: GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 0.5". THERE MAY BE SOME
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THESE SHOWERS, BUT MODEL SEVERE
PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE TOO LACKLUSTER FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS OF NOW. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT GETS INTO THE SHORT TERM.
ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE ABLE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD LATE
THIS WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AND
TEMPORARILY KNOCK OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON
MONDAY. AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PRETTY BENIGN.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND LEAVE THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. WITH THIS PATTERN WILL COME ANOTHER WARMING TREND THAT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EYES ON FIRE WEATHER AND
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE LIMITED RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /57/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
FOR THE 19/00Z TAF PERIOD...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. EVENTUALLY, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN, AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING TO HOLD SOME
CLOUD COVER AT KMLU/KLFK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT KMLU/KLFK AS WELL ON THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SSW DURING THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 79 55 76 / 0 10 10 10
MLU 64 78 58 75 / 0 10 20 20
DEQ 56 76 42 67 / 10 10 0 10
TXK 65 79 49 71 / 0 10 0 10
ELD 61 76 50 70 / 0 20 10 20
TYR 65 80 53 75 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 64 80 53 75 / 0 10 0 10
LFK 65 79 60 78 / 0 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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